TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Miyazaki: Blake Ellis vs Naoya Honda

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Blake Ellisof Blake Ellis, Naoya Honda
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$175,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$196,388

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,882 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82d2…fab9backed Naoya Honda0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-84.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…b8f7backed Blake Ellis47c6,815$3,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,606.8413754.7%75 W · 62 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Blake Ellis32c6,702$2,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,554.1837741.4%156 W · 221 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Blake Ellis59c6,389$3,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,618.8637854%204 W · 174 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Naoya Honda58c6,061$3,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,544.076,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Naoya Honda64c4,336$2,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,776.047,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Naoya Honda62c4,017$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,498.792,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Naoya Honda38c3,682$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.092,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9410…ffcdbacked Blake Ellis34c3,401$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,251.094124.4%10 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Naoya Honda52c2,974$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.9697046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Naoya Honda56c2,426$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.4137342.6%159 W · 214 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Blake Ellis41c2,414$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,432.472,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Naoya Honda70c2,227$1,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.0911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Naoya Honda58c2,012$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.9269249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Blake Ellis50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00019835.4%70 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Naoya Honda51c1,880$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.842,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5f…6cecbacked Naoya Honda42c1,830$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.8527749.8%138 W · 139 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe84b…ed6dbacked Blake Ellis31c1,805$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.211844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Naoya Honda51c1,629$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.7239751.4%204 W · 193 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed Blake Ellis52c1,565$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.422564%16 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Blake Ellis64c1,563$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.7618651.1%95 W · 91 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e59…1520backed Blake Ellis31c1,513$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.0530744.6%137 W · 170 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Blake Ellis42c1,396$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.2834744.4%154 W · 193 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a84…dd32backed Blake Ellis40c1,388$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.234055%22 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Blake Ellis48c1,275$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.311,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Naoya Honda53c1,272$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.959,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Naoya Honda60c1,254$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.0927240.4%110 W · 162 L-25.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-26.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Blake Ellis27c1,108$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.865558.9%386 W · 269 L-32.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Naoya Honda49c1,046$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.8338931.4%122 W · 267 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Blake Ellis29c1,022$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.3330225.8%78 W · 224 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c89…526abacked Blake Ellis31c1,016$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.1624638.2%94 W · 152 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53a5…fc83backed Blake Ellis50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5008343.4%36 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Blake Ellis46c896.6$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.943,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Blake Ellis50c892.1$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.162534.4%215 W · 410 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Blake Ellis64c876.21$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.021,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Blake Ellis69c775.09$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.6518159.7%108 W · 73 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Naoya Honda72c764.04$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.84,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Blake Ellis58c755.03$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.9664065.9%422 W · 218 L+2.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Naoya Honda59c719.8$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.2711245.5%51 W · 61 L-9.4wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Naoya Honda69c550.8$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38011748.7%57 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa955…55d4backed Naoya Honda64c548.77$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.8530%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Blake Ellis37c544.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.1226847%126 W · 142 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Naoya Honda36c449.14$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.591,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9186…fad1backed Naoya Honda67c446.63$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Naoya Honda68c442.21$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30037071.9%266 W · 104 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fd…c880backed Blake Ellis38c415.52$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Naoya Honda48c415$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.261924.4%151 W · 468 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…934dbacked Blake Ellis23c390$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.330715.6%48 W · 259 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Naoya Honda61c353$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.6343558.6%255 W · 180 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Blake Ellis33c351.82$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.8241544.3%184 W · 231 L-1.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Naoya Honda74c340.41$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.946453%246 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Naoya Honda58c331.78$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2153752.3%281 W · 256 L+2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea48…62dcbacked Blake Ellis30c320.07$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.39947.5%47 W · 52 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Naoya Honda47c311.94$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1461,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Blake Ellis41c303.55$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.631,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Blake Ellis43c300$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1721,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Blake Ellis35c296.42$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.6715956%89 W · 70 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Blake Ellis57c263.16$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.161,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb89a…d883backed Blake Ellis37c261.57$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce1…86afbacked Naoya Honda77c258$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick74cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Naoya Honda55c257$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14118250%91 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Blake Ellis46c231$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.552,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Blake Ellis44c228.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.411,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Naoya Honda54c227$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5829952.2%156 W · 143 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Naoya Honda58c224.42$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13044038.4%169 W · 271 L-27.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f1d…7ff3backed Naoya Honda51c217.59$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Naoya Honda33c198.47$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4927344.7%122 W · 151 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x319b…d4d5backed Blake Ellis48c196.86$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.916144.3%27 W · 34 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Blake Ellis32c196.11$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.21,37916.4%226 W · 1,153 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Naoya Honda17c193.04$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.388,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Naoya Honda65c192.31$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12550364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Naoya Honda42c181.22$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.841,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Naoya Honda54c180.85$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.151,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0xd40b…429abacked Blake Ellis36c180.53$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.541741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1418…d6a7backed Blake Ellis40c179.58$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.751050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Naoya Honda40c176.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Blake Ellis37c175.48$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.213,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Blake Ellis54c170.63$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4913958.3%81 W · 58 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed Naoya Honda60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-50.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0676…f0f0backed Blake Ellis32c156.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5620552.7%108 W · 97 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Naoya Honda65c151.65$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1926349%129 W · 134 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Blake Ellis46c150.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.692,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc362…0f5ebacked Naoya Honda39c150$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5444…bbdabacked Naoya Honda50c149$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.533149.2%163 W · 168 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked Naoya Honda68c147.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012831.3%40 W · 88 L-20.8wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-36.8%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Blake Ellis62c146.72$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.761,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…d2b5backed Blake Ellis64c140.32$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.941668%283 W · 133 L+23.6wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Blake Ellis69c138.92$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.771,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84bd…34d0backed Naoya Honda36c138.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010829.6%32 W · 76 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Naoya Honda61c135.18$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.522953.3%122 W · 107 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7f…a844backed Blake Ellis44c131.72$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.474346.3%344 W · 399 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb92f…58c4backed Blake Ellis77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8730653.3%163 W · 143 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Naoya Honda47c126.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Blake Ellis69c123.32$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9661752.5%324 W · 293 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0cd…7af1backed Blake Ellis42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.05944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Naoya Honda64c115.94$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e42…8f95backed Naoya Honda42c102.74$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.481952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Naoya Honda45c102$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.946556.1%261 W · 204 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked Naoya Honda54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked Blake Ellis25c99.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9951539.8%205 W · 310 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.