Fifa International · resolved market
Germany to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x658ebea6f718243632e97f5eceb4e740ac0d74005cd7718d05c7497854efecf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 58c | 19,961$11,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,372.52 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked No | 41c | 9,826$4,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,025.41 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf48…36c2backed No | 42c | 6,070$2,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,536.45 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 42c | 5,670$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385.8 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 4,353$2,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.7 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 59c | 3,344$1,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.94 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed No | 40c | 2,210$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Yes | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 43c | 1,171$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.95 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 42c | 997.48$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.05 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked Yes | 58c | 852.97$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.25 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…f001backed Yes | 58c | 833$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.86 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…2a0ebacked Yes | 75c | 700$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 40c | 665$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 621.81$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Yes | 59c | 501$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.41 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 38c | 445.39$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.25 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 39c | 350.77$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.54 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked No | 35c | 324.68$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.13 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ad…6254backed Yes | 65c | 307.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 28c | 237.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 484 | 38.2%185 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…163abacked Yes | 70c | 202$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2db…ffcbbacked Yes | 57c | 200.14$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.06 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 340 | 35%119 W · 221 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 43c | 199.24$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 179 | 62.6%112 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…98abbacked Yes | 71c | 138.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 195 | 53.3%104 W · 91 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1597…6edebacked No | 11c | 136$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 470 | 29.1%137 W · 333 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed No | 26c | 125.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 38c | 125.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…652cbacked Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…425ebacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 61c | 95.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…f7f8backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 42c | 82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 1,240 | 43.7%542 W · 698 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed No | 42c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1,421 | 47.8%679 W · 742 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 78c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 27c | 70.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…0706backed Yes | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…8e1cbacked Yes | 61c | 59.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 657 | 37.4%246 W · 411 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 59c | 53.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 28c | 52.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 332 | 37.3%124 W · 208 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…87babacked Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…6e47backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Yes | 58c | 35.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 419 | 68.3%286 W · 133 L | +65.4wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x66bb…cd52backed Yes | 75c | 34.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 331 | 23.6%78 W · 253 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed No | 43c | 32.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…7856backed Yes | 61c | 32.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 43c | 28.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 481 | 54.9%264 W · 217 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…bad3backed Yes | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 42c | 23.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,151 | 58.5%673 W · 478 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Yes | 58c | 21.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 866 | 56.4%488 W · 378 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab2…18febacked Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Germany to win the second half?this page
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Second half draw?No won
- Paraguay to win the second half?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.