MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x688e3e1d94549e8061bc7ac0625d99f18e5f7b40d623deed2f07d13ad44b64f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 51c | 1,600$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 41c | 969.32$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.93 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed No | 61c | 859.61$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.25 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 48c | 766.75$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.66 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 51c | 582$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.82 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Yes | 39c | 520$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Yes | 39c | 444.3$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.31 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Yes | 43c | 295$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.15 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 41c | 213.18$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.78 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 55c | 195.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…bd04backed No | 57c | 165.66$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed No | 65c | 146.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 35c | 132.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed No | 65c | 126.76$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Yes | 42c | 108.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 41c | 105.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 42c | 103$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 39c | 100.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…e67abacked Yes | 54c | 98.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed No | 59c | 93.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed No | 56c | 83.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Yes | 48c | 69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 219 | 48.4%106 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Yes | 51c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 39c | 45.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 54c | 43.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked No | 60c | 41.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 52c | 41.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…b100backed No | 57c | 35.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Yes | 41c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…97f4backed No | 67c | 31.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…6f5bbacked Yes | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 47c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.