Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68da8c7bc897e3c034de43f423d4bb107e8938df502f62170701e2294cc6d843
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 25c | 439.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 17c | 250$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 10c | 238.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 38c | 217.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 161.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 161$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 150.22$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 34c | 144.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 137.85$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 134.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 14c | 124.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 16c | 107.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 14c | 101.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 100.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 93.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 75.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 70.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 49c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 24c | 65.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 18c | 59.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 78c | 53.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 21c | 52.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 48.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…e563backed No | 80c | 45.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 35c | 39.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 31c | 37.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 51c | 34.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 22.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.