Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x442c3949afe4844e74d8562ab301ab5e7104840f2aca7d36d2972f0ecbea22da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 23c | 993.6$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.2 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 14c | 713.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 37c | 462.92$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.23 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 60c | 452.08$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.38 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 62c | 450$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.97 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 80c | 383.37$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 69c | 337.99$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 73c | 275.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 224$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 5c | 203.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 175$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 160.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 38c | 159.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.68 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 61c | 157$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 152.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 40c | 145.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 62c | 142.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 75c | 134.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 44c | 132.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 29c | 129.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 44c | 113.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 36c | 103.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 37c | 101.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 28c | 100.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…b542backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054c…0a1abacked Yes | 31c | 88.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 63c | 85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 34c | 78.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 35c | 63.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 39c | 53.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 53.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0c…0638backed Yes | 79c | 51.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0c07…6e39backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b38…9cd8backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 49.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 35c | 49.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 79c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 34c | 48.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x769c…7c49backed Yes | 77c | 47.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 70c | 47.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 42c | 41.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 47c | 41.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…04a1backed Yes | 80c | 41.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…3243backed Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…9289backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…a0a5backed No | 30c | 39.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 69c | 37.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked No | 65c | 36.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 35.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 35.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 63c | 34.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 66c | 33.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 50c | 33.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 65c | 32.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 73c | 32.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 34c | 32.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes | 33c | 30.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…b7d6backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed No | 63c | 25.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 25.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 68c | 20.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 76c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…5315backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.