TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,385
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,385 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6868…5198backed No23c993.6$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.21,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…31b5backed No14c713.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.659536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes37c462.92$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.2310539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes60c452.08$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.3857044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No62c450$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.9711436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa09d…af80backed Yes80c383.37$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.3321150.7%107 W · 104 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed Yes69c337.99$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4715950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes73c275.45$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4516937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No39c224$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.44,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed No5c203.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1910432.7%34 W · 70 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1284,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42e5…c9a7backed No28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5641033.7%138 W · 272 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No27c175$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.034,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No31c160.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.137,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes38c159.76$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6838633.4%129 W · 257 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked No61c157$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.031,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No33c152.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.576,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No40c145.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.582,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes62c142.6$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.842,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes75c134.26$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.321,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No44c132.97$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.621,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a0…9d96backed Yes78c130$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked No29c129.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5641331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed Yes44c113.43$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.979846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes36c103.92$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8877851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked No37c101.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5622446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x92e3…ab49backed Yes28c100.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.377138%27 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x321e…b542backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked No63c90$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.79053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x054c…0a1abacked Yes31c88.53$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.232548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733c…c0a7backed No63c85$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.555538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No41c80$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.943559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No34c78.42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.451,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes33c70$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.917324.3%42 W · 131 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cf…65d5backed No29c68.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6243…e014backed Yes23c65$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.923243.5%101 W · 131 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes35c63.29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.421,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0408…3d68backed Yes36c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1921262.3%132 W · 80 L+20.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No39c53.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1644366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes59c53.69$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.966,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c0c…0638backed Yes79c51.98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No39c51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.898,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1757948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fd…15a0backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed No26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1322857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd731…4199backed Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.59273.9%68 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.813588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x0c07…6e39backed Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1824569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b38…9cd8backed Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No31c49.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.691,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed No35c49.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4119947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes79c49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.291,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes34c48.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9820445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x769c…7c49backed Yes77c47.11$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.641172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes70c47.06$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9290555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes42c41.94$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.272,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No47c41.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.331,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f82…04a1backed Yes80c41.25$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.251163.6%7 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick75cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee1b…3243backed Yes54c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e17…9289backed Yes78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe76b…a0a5backed No30c39.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes69c37.59$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.762,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf8b…4dedbacked No65c36.88$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0314546.9%68 W · 77 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes37c35.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.181,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes34c35.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.132,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…256ebacked No63c34.47$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8623362.2%145 W · 88 L+33.5wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No66c33.24$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9417766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes50c33.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.42,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes65c32.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.252,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes73c32.07$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.772,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes34c32.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1643848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No63c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.532,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc31…3fe8backed Yes33c30.57$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.423951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc36…b7d6backed Yes41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.816641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No63c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34b0…05a6backed No63c25.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.323253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No69c25.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.443,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No66c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.524,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No64c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4458358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes68c20.26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.492,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes76c20.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.847470.3%52 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b0a…5315backed Yes74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.23345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa012…2af7backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.66061.7%37 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.816453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.