TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
KT Rolsterof KT Rolster, T1
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,150,304
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,363,925

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,150,304 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 601 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed T171c124,062$87,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,612.7622850.9%116 W · 112 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed KT Rolster30c58,064$17,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,935.151146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce29…3b0dbacked KT Rolster31c55,568$17,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,436.946352.4%33 W · 30 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked T123c34,526$7,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,971.441,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed KT Rolster38c20,476$7,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,717.766046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed T170c20,000$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,00032650.3%164 W · 162 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2383…072fbacked KT Rolster30c17,150$5,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,020.086845.6%31 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed T158c16,313$9,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,486.6235648.9%174 W · 182 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked T153c16,169$8,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,619.8426344.5%117 W · 146 L+18.3wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84fb…675ebacked KT Rolster30c15,352$4,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,746.392454.2%13 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+39%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d78…29a5backed T169c15,180$10,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,546.398651.2%44 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed T165c14,443$9,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,332.3951044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed T169c14,229$9,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,882.4289746.9%421 W · 476 L+43.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked KT Rolster35c13,328$4,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,710.071,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed KT Rolster77c13,067$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,066.8821556.7%122 W · 93 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed KT Rolster30c12,701$3,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,890.738735.9%139 W · 248 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed KT Rolster42c12,221$5,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,088.611,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf23c…9f81backed KT Rolster65c12,179$7,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,250.8416060.6%97 W · 63 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f47…d0a3backed T11c12,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140923.3%3 W · 89 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9f…0eaebacked T165c11,800$7,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,6702944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked T149c11,727$5,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,713.7522667.3%152 W · 74 L+27.9wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+36.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked T173c11,206$8,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,161.912,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed KT Rolster46c10,545$4,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,655.9651748.2%249 W · 268 L+26.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0587…c40bbacked T124c10,407$2,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,457.4717045.9%78 W · 92 L+16.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed T168c9,845$6,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,706.2148157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked T140c8,691$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,497.7848147.2%227 W · 254 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x565c…878dbacked KT Rolster23c8,677$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,672.1514032.1%45 W · 95 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed KT Rolster30c8,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,60058457.7%337 W · 247 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x898b…6c00backed KT Rolster31c7,600$2,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,274.4966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ec8…1d07backed T154c7,188$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,85012553.6%67 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked T165c7,003$4,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,552.2496948.6%471 W · 498 L+12.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked KT Rolster36c6,986$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,486.241,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd99b…50bebacked KT Rolster30c6,691$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,683.76848.5%33 W · 35 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed KT Rolster78c6,666$5,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.5219371.5%138 W · 55 L+11.2wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65fe…c200backed KT Rolster73c6,547$4,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,746.2422360.1%134 W · 89 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ef9…3d08backed T165c6,014$3,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,924.9410246.1%47 W · 55 L-15.5wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-25.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed KT Rolster35c6,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,879.9848834%166 W · 322 L+25.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed KT Rolster32c5,970$1,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,085.9123141.1%95 W · 136 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked KT Rolster43c5,832$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,331.929843.3%129 W · 169 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked T165c5,546$3,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,604.7630044%132 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed KT Rolster32c5,320$1,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,637.477042.9%30 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed KT Rolster28c5,300$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,789.9823645.3%107 W · 129 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed T166c5,190$3,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,441.811,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed T169c5,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,45092254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fd1…bfe8backed KT Rolster32c5,000$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,398.5955639.6%220 W · 336 L+32.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed KT Rolster59c4,926$2,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,034.8285942.7%367 W · 492 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd9…5d16backed KT Rolster27c4,693$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,447.712540%10 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed KT Rolster31c4,575$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,156.8517648.3%85 W · 91 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16e…bd58backed T112c4,530$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.0616542.4%70 W · 95 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb62d…c8ccbacked KT Rolster68c4,352$2,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,387.8836954.2%200 W · 169 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x124e…1c58backed T166c4,244$2,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,787.7117454.6%95 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b8…149bbacked KT Rolster31c4,200$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,90010340.8%42 W · 61 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked T154c4,123$2,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.2684360.7%512 W · 331 L+44.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd621…b9efbacked T113c4,021$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.9725740.9%105 W · 152 L+16.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed T156c4,000$2,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,245.0890443.6%394 W · 510 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed T170c4,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8001,44157.4%827 W · 614 L+35.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1660…5598backed T170c4,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8009250%46 W · 46 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeed6…d8dabacked T124c3,932$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.592729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked KT Rolster58c3,843$2,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.241,54062.6%964 W · 576 L+158.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc41b…cc4bbacked KT Rolster30c3,800$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,660250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked T171c3,765$2,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,691.521,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed T170c3,642$2,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,542.141,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5952…8a5ebacked KT Rolster32c3,614$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.066943.5%30 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc92…5667backed KT Rolster31c3,460$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,374.668334.9%29 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed KT Rolster31c3,400$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,34686136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8756…3c83backed T145c3,400$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5348543.5%37 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18c2…529abacked T159c3,216$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,898.5613642.6%58 W · 78 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed KT Rolster31c3,192$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.0678646.4%365 W · 421 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked KT Rolster31c3,063$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,098.888544.3%392 W · 493 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45a…02e5backed KT Rolster77c3,006$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.2536147.9%173 W · 188 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a4a…3da9backed KT Rolster77c3,001$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.076558.5%38 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed T172c3,000$2,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.528143.2%35 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed T162c3,000$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,87047136.9%174 W · 297 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed KT Rolster30c3,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10024147.3%114 W · 127 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2627…fa13backed KT Rolster30c3,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,10012040.8%49 W · 71 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked T166c3,000$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.991,09752.3%574 W · 523 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked KT Rolster48c2,887$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.251,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed KT Rolster36c2,839$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.741,14338.8%444 W · 699 L-46.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked KT Rolster29c2,807$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.7617954.7%98 W · 81 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x581a…e40dbacked T168c2,682$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.487354.8%40 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce6…9469backed KT Rolster27c2,610$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,916.051643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed T127c2,600$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.4940063%252 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked KT Rolster27c2,578$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,881.6465544.1%289 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked T166c2,520$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.136359%214 W · 149 L+21.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked T167c2,512$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.971,21954.5%664 W · 555 L+52.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed T170c2,500$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.651,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed T168c2,490$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,696.3655056.7%312 W · 238 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked T165c2,489$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.5620346.3%94 W · 109 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed KT Rolster76c2,449$1,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.032,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d87…e214backed KT Rolster33c2,333$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.3326961.7%166 W · 103 L+22.4wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x82aa…fe2fbacked KT Rolster35c2,288$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.23240.6%13 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664e…e82abacked T166c2,269$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.4715267.1%102 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a3…3e5cbacked T170c2,143$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5007960.8%48 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd391…b109backed T172c2,083$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50014647.9%70 W · 76 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-17.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed T165c2,067$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.792,17853.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L+61.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked KT Rolster41c2,039$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.934351.3%176 W · 167 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed T169c2,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38033153.2%176 W · 155 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a23…3253backed KT Rolster36c2,000$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,289.1610857.4%62 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed KT Rolster30c2,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4001,22135.9%438 W · 783 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d76…1298backed T167c2,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.995147.1%24 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.