Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6903b7eb795157177e745387f27c012a168984c40d2631c167eecc5c017d1301
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 1,028$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 67c | 759.12$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 41c | 612.45$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.05 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 526.79$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 66c | 437$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.75 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 431.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 65c | 400$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.37 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 42c | 357.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 314.63$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 27c | 313.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.93 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 42c | 313.11$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…b4cebacked No | 67c | 298.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 59c | 282.29$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 50c | 276.67$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.97 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 76c | 273.43$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.56 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 58c | 267.76$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 55c | 262.04$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 73c | 227.59$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.17 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 208.03$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 200.87$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.81 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 56c | 199.87$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989f…0af2backed No | 33c | 194.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 54c | 194.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.88 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 48c | 177.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 27c | 165.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 156$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 72c | 154.29$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 153.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 60c | 147.01$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 31c | 135$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 32c | 124.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 27c | 122.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 34c | 121.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 118.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 63c | 116.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 46c | 112.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 46c | 111.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 38c | 101.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 71c | 100.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 44c | 100.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 31c | 100.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 99.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…4dbfbacked No | 33c | 95.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 40c | 89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 68c | 87.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 87.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 25c | 87.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 46c | 82.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 24c | 80.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 77.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 40c | 74.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 32c | 68.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 39c | 66.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 38c | 65.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 65.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 59c | 62.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 61.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e20…06c5backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 28c | 59.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 36c | 59.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 68c | 56.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fc…16b5backed Yes | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 50.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…05afbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…00b7backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 42c | 49.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x867a…91adbacked Yes | 68c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 38c | 48.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 39c | 48.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 71c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 28c | 45.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 43.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 31c | 43.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 65c | 40.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 30c | 39.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 38.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…aed3backed Yes | 34c | 37.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…b9b4backed Yes | 41c | 36.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 31c | 35.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.