Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9d7e265bf2f1c093681552532870af423cc438166788d93d99d02f1465d74b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 1c | 4,783$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 1,903$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 53c | 999.97$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.98 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 57c | 853.23$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.79 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Yes | 76c | 557.79$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.81 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 73c | 529.12$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.39 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 391$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 54c | 382.42$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.01 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 46c | 327.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.35 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 283.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 44c | 266.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…bea2backed Yes | 30c | 255.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 40c | 248.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.9 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 42c | 238.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.88 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 43c | 230.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 42c | 225.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 223$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 217.24$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 215$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 209.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 204.9$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 52c | 204.39$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.99 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 199.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.37 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 56c | 194.41$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.54 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 43c | 187.28$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 12c | 180.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 43c | 176.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 163.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 162.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 44c | 162.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 151.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 59c | 151.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 43c | 141.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 139$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 47c | 135$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 54c | 127.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 119.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 51c | 113.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 42c | 107.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 76c | 98.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.42 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 90.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 43c | 88.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…52abbacked No | 46c | 81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 55c | 79.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 53c | 75.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 60c | 75.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 56c | 68.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 65.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked No | 58c | 65.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 64.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 61.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 48c | 59.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…05afbacked Yes | 57c | 59.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 29c | 55.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 55.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 42c | 54.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 56c | 53.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 42c | 52.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 42c | 52.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 52c | 52.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 51.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 51c | 51.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 57c | 49.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 65c | 49.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…9c59backed No | 54c | 47.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 47c | 47.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 24c | 47.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 27c | 46.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 43c | 45.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 58c | 43.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 44c | 43.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…08d4backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…00b7backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Yes | 77c | 39.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 55c | 39.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 54c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.