Middle East · resolved market
IDF Chief Eyal Zamir out by December 31, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69361af4fa7424d6f1dfa51999d6445685fd79297d604c27525111f7b92b587b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 20c | 3,068$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.94 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 75c | 2,998$2,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.92 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 22c | 1,340$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.44 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,216$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb753…f859backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 78c | 993.94$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.47 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 19c | 803$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.59 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 5c | 760$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 669.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 19c | 659.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 24c | 648.28$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.59 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 76c | 505$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 456.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 3c | 449$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 5c | 443.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 3c | 431$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…0837backed Yes | 24c | 422.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 23c | 410.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 3c | 393$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed Yes | 3c | 383$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…d9fcbacked Yes | 3c | 383$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 4c | 372.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 3c | 366$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 4c | 364.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes | 3c | 344$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 4c | 286$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…4e01backed Yes | 17c | 281.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479d…4ecfbacked No | 78c | 204.71$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 10c | 184.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5990…4deabacked Yes | 17c | 173.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 16cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f96…9dd5backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 11c | 140.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…ce1ebacked Yes | 22c | 135.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 18c | 106.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 77c | 103.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…f06ebacked Yes | 25c | 98.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…aa5abacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 61.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 76c | 52.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8c…890fbacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…9bafbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 77c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.