TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ASTRALof ex-RUBY, ASTRAL
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$50,014
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,014 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d60…6df2backed ex-RUBY0c13,200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.212654.8%69 W · 57 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked ex-RUBY64c3,376$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,173.445,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked ASTRAL42c2,555$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed ASTRAL36c2,250$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.971,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ex-RUBY62c1,586$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.852,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed ASTRAL35c1,529$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.1733627.7%93 W · 243 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed ex-RUBY33c1,059$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.576,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed ex-RUBY52c967.8$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.9435861.7%221 W · 137 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed ASTRAL57c896.93$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.8952456.3%295 W · 229 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1661…4b37backed ex-RUBY38c845.45$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.397349.3%36 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed ex-RUBY64c815.55$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.9526054.2%141 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eb5…6fe9backed ex-RUBY41c711.03$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.5210061%61 W · 39 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed ASTRAL35c706.23$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.280942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed ex-RUBY53c670.07$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.264,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ASTRAL34c599.98$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.995,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked ex-RUBY43c538.79$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.5294645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ASTRAL64c533.96$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.655,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed ex-RUBY65c510.72$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.972,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed ASTRAL35c499.99$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32528738%109 W · 178 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e6…e722backed ex-RUBY59c499.99$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.4926245.8%120 W · 142 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed ex-RUBY66c482.59$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.5126650.8%135 W · 131 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed ASTRAL34c470.59$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.5914051.4%72 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed ex-RUBY32c441.41$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.348635.4%172 W · 314 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked ASTRAL37c427$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.773,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed ASTRAL35c399.98$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.9849935.1%175 W · 324 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fab…f47bbacked ASTRAL35c393.98$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.092619.2%5 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-36%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x586a…6610backed ex-RUBY66c372$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.521553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed ex-RUBY56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20098856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked ex-RUBY15c329.49$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.23,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked ex-RUBY32c316.59$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.594,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed ex-RUBY66c303.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked ex-RUBY30c292.48$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.362,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked ex-RUBY43c250$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.595642.6%407 W · 549 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked ASTRAL37c250$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.543640.6%177 W · 259 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed ASTRAL56c244.74$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.551,21640.1%488 W · 728 L-65.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed ASTRAL35c235.14$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.8413738.7%53 W · 84 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed ASTRAL57c234$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.822,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x277e…259ebacked ex-RUBY66c227.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508463.1%53 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed ASTRAL61c224.9$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4278043.7%341 W · 439 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed ex-RUBY26c220.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7840141.6%167 W · 234 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeebe…5d9bbacked ex-RUBY66c217.23$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.215856.3%89 W · 69 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ASTRAL37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1262,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked ex-RUBY30c182.83$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.934,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed ASTRAL61c181.07$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6791743.7%401 W · 516 L-35.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ex-RUBY31c179.6$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.234,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39e4…f089backed ex-RUBY40c174.44$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7032138.3%123 W · 198 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed ex-RUBY64c168.59$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.111,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed ex-RUBY64c156.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047447.5%225 W · 249 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ASTRAL58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.925,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed ASTRAL34c149.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991,07637.6%405 W · 671 L+34.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed ASTRAL58c143.03$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.3232346.1%149 W · 174 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed ex-RUBY65c142.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9574054.6%404 W · 336 L+15.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked ASTRAL56c142.17$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.171,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe252…5714backed ASTRAL36c138.87$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8823335.2%82 W · 151 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed ex-RUBY45c131.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.639038.5%150 W · 240 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8912…1712backed ASTRAL38c130$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.627735.7%99 W · 178 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed ex-RUBY48c122.43$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1230951.5%159 W · 150 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed ex-RUBY64c117.19$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7583856.1%470 W · 368 L+31.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed ASTRAL36c113.17$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4339946.4%185 W · 214 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed ASTRAL35c110$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.545645.2%206 W · 250 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca2…5d25backed ex-RUBY45c102.95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3317759.9%106 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ASTRAL69c102.73$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.747,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aae…0da3backed ex-RUBY65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6514255.6%79 W · 63 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5206…0f4cbacked ASTRAL35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6526535.5%94 W · 171 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked ex-RUBY50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5075056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed ex-RUBY34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3439440.4%159 W · 235 L+30.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed ASTRAL37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6365946.6%307 W · 352 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23b4…48dabacked ASTRAL55c97.31$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4110942.2%46 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked ex-RUBY20c85.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.822,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked ASTRAL36c85$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.491648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe728…9d87backed ex-RUBY25c83.61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.923150.6%117 W · 114 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked ASTRAL35c78.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0346447.6%221 W · 243 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e51…71d4backed ex-RUBY45c77.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3517153.2%91 W · 80 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed ex-RUBY71c76.51$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.324273.8%31 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d31…07b0backed ex-RUBY21c72.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152556%14 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69eb…bbc3backed ex-RUBY47c63.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked ex-RUBY66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.628657.7%165 W · 121 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed ex-RUBY48c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.816850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e30…d312backed ASTRAL35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd8…54b3backed ASTRAL55c54.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5511850%59 W · 59 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d5f…1ea7backed ex-RUBY66c53.03$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356258.1%36 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa195…8c92backed ASTRAL57c51.71$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.439138.5%35 W · 56 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked ASTRAL32c50.7$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4733340.2%134 W · 199 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked ex-RUBY66c50.51$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.341,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked ASTRAL35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.515747.1%74 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15cf…4d9bbacked ASTRAL36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3226448.1%127 W · 137 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc987…123abacked ex-RUBY68c49.15$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.327443.2%32 W · 42 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa073…a3babacked ex-RUBY64c45.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.121,11768.6%766 W · 351 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3724…c59abacked ASTRAL35c45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.19732%31 W · 66 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-24.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked ex-RUBY63c43.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2233657.1%192 W · 144 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f1d…7ff3backed ASTRAL38c39.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4717654.5%96 W · 80 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22ab…5191backed ex-RUBY40c38.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2120662.1%128 W · 78 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked ex-RUBY43c37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9126246.9%123 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c65…9a3dbacked ex-RUBY69c36.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257636.8%28 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed ASTRAL45c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.252,06150.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L-18.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked ASTRAL58c34.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.382,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ba2…6b6cbacked ex-RUBY66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017764.4%114 W · 63 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked ex-RUBY66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.828856.6%163 W · 125 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed ASTRAL37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.932845.1%148 W · 180 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4360…fad6backed ex-RUBY67c29.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.