NBA · resolved market

Spread: Lakers (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a73cdeb318f6edf8911333673193b0f820492e2f939e575e0046b1594beb881

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Lakers, Jazz
Resolved: Nov 24, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,381
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,381 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa925…e1c8backed Lakers	56c	11,527$6,455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,455	87	44.8%39 W · 48 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	44c	9,451$4,164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,287.05	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz	44c	2,500$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,400	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Jazz	44c	816.78$359 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$457.4	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd8d…a108backed Lakers	56c	625$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	44c	500$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Jazz	59c	200$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61e1…adf1backed Lakers	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	75	48%36 W · 39 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Lakers	54c	113.35$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.21	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Lakers	56c	110$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.6	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x833c…24f4backed Lakers	56c	107.14$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	61	62.3%38 W · 23 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Jazz	53c	103.77$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.77	160	45%72 W · 88 L	+9.7wins	+0.06per pick	39cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Lakers	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	336	50.6%170 W · 166 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…8117backed Lakers	54c	92.69$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	204	44.6%91 W · 113 L	-9.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8328…0a5cbacked Lakers	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	368	42.4%156 W · 212 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f1…f0e8backed Lakers	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	81	55.6%45 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87d5…9790backed Lakers	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	133	58.6%78 W · 55 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Jazz	48c	84$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.68	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Lakers	54c	80$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	824	40.4%333 W · 491 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Lakers	51c	70.53$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.97	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Jazz	45c	59.99$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Jazz	46c	54.17$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.2	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Lakers	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Lakers	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Lakers	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	345	56.2%194 W · 151 L	+17.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Lakers	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x227c…f0cbbacked Lakers	56c	35.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-22%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Jazz	34c	35.23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.3	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers	47c	33.24$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Lakers	66c	30.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jazz	46c	28.78$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.52	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf275…7050backed Lakers	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Lakers	54c	27.62$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	852	48.9%417 W · 435 L	+26.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0ec…9684backed Lakers	56c	23.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.22per pick	51cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4131…d591backed Lakers	56c	19.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	146	50.7%74 W · 72 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Lakers (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event