South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ac829dea64d26dec34ba06a977253d74198a1f76071f302ae7f710d67c0240a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 26c | 7,500$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,550 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 5,221$3,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,831.07 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 3,082$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.57 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…180bbacked No | 70c | 2,523$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.47 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 26c | 2,158$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.92 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 29c | 2,010$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.07 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 23c | 1,871$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.35 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 1,732$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.69 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.73 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 1,215$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.93 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed Yes | 74c | 971.94$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.88 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Yes | 20c | 950$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…2afcbacked No | 79c | 887.99$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.51 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 717.24$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.66 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 28c | 645.66$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.78 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 53c | 645.16$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.62 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 67c | 638.61$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.73 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cca…6633backed No | 22c | 625.22$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…c7cfbacked No | 79c | 585.09$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 75cpaid | -31%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 74c | 506$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.44 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b63…bdd3backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.55 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd32e…b577backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +134.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed No | 78c | 385.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.71 | 78 | 14.1%11 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 36c | 267.25$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.31 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2476…7eeebacked No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 74c | 242.37$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.36 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4295…6303backed Yes | 9c | 229.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +366.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed No | 69c | 214.19$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Yes | 24c | 197.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.12 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 185.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.06 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…de2fbacked Yes | 9c | 162.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +191.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 13c | 119$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 51c | 117.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed No | 78c | 113.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +9.7wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 155 | 54.2%84 W · 71 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Yes | 19c | 98.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 156 | 25.6%40 W · 116 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 53c | 97.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…dc21backed No | 23c | 81.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 48c | 80.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 245 | 35.5%87 W · 158 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Yes | 32c | 75.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 70c | 75.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Yes | 77c | 70.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…0289backed No | 77c | 66.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 79c | 65.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 57.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 44.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 43.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed No | 79c | 37.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 77cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c2…9ab4backed Yes | 79c | 33.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 76c | 27.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…8ad6backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…1c47backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 24.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…df6dbacked Yes | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37e…2709backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870b…3572backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 63c | 16.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will CA Talleres vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Talleres win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.