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Tennis · resolved market

Morelos: Vadym Ursu vs Andres Martin

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Andres Martinof Vadym Ursu, Andres Martin
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,584

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,584 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5aa9…febebacked Vadym Ursu20c6,852$1,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,404.151,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Andres Martin72c3,070$2,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.056,67850.7%3,387 W · 3,291 L+265.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Andres Martin71c2,627$1,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.0938268.1%260 W · 122 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dca…72a5backed Andres Martin73c2,055$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.7920847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked Vadym Ursu29c1,755$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.424949%24 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Vadym Ursu31c1,666$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.73,89135%1,362 W · 2,529 L+93.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Andres Martin63c1,555$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.012,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Vadym Ursu27c1,535$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.4549852.4%261 W · 237 L+29.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+34.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67b4…19acbacked Vadym Ursu9c1,051$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.618229.3%24 W · 58 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Andres Martin24c992.21$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.0271725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Vadym Ursu34c888.41$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.356,79836.9%2,507 W · 4,291 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Vadym Ursu33c855.06$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.411,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84dc…008ebacked Vadym Ursu24c779.81$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.062213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Andres Martin72c689$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.461,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Vadym Ursu31c657.72$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.568026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46ea…225bbacked Andres Martin66c644.49$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.122755.6%15 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Vadym Ursu31c590.21$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.8944038.4%169 W · 271 L-27.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Vadym Ursu32c498.07$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9336333.9%123 W · 240 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Andres Martin71c480.26$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.341,98146.2%916 W · 1,065 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Vadym Ursu30c456.01$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5935040.9%143 W · 207 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Vadym Ursu32c406.37$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.132842.7%140 W · 188 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd102…eed2backed Vadym Ursu26c400$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85ae…5399backed Vadym Ursu26c383.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Andres Martin70c379.82$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.24,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7331…9679backed Vadym Ursu26c377.39$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf95e…1816backed Vadym Ursu26c365.51$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Andres Martin65c364.53$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5920554.6%112 W · 93 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cc5…7b98backed Vadym Ursu31c349.05$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.556269.4%43 W · 19 L+6.7wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Vadym Ursu40c325.98$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.932,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fff…bb71backed Vadym Ursu25c299.54$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.06944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Vadym Ursu20c282.02$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.872,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf77c…61cabacked Vadym Ursu27c262$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7411846.6%55 W · 63 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Vadym Ursu37c245.33$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3854434.2%186 W · 358 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Vadym Ursu34c240.38$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8125433.5%85 W · 169 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Andres Martin69c231.67$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.061,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500e…6118backed Andres Martin66c227.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.924165.1%157 W · 84 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Andres Martin80c200$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.833364.9%216 W · 117 L-19.4wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Andres Martin68c200$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6543243.1%186 W · 246 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Vadym Ursu14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2825843.4%112 W · 146 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Vadym Ursu46c197$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8861953.3%330 W · 289 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Andres Martin64c193.67$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7299941.1%411 W · 588 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Vadym Ursu34c176.47$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6032649.1%160 W · 166 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Andres Martin65c158.98$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6498255.4%544 W · 438 L+3.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Vadym Ursu30c157.65$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.843,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Andres Martin64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.252,05959.5%1,226 W · 833 L-0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Andres Martin51c156.12$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.044,51051.7%2,333 W · 2,177 L+135.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Vadym Ursu33c150$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.841,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Andres Martin64c143.14$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.634848.3%168 W · 180 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Andres Martin68c140$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.81,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Vadym Ursu43c138$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3337342.6%159 W · 214 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Vadym Ursu31c125.12$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7953544.1%236 W · 299 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Vadym Ursu45c120$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.571,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Vadym Ursu35c120$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.714746.3%68 W · 79 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Vadym Ursu33c109.44$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.081,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Vadym Ursu37c107$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.462,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58f2…692ebacked Andres Martin72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2853457.7%308 W · 226 L-0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Andres Martin75c97.98$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.798,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Andres Martin66c91.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.231,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Andres Martin53c90.1$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.372,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Vadym Ursu26c84.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.084422.7%10 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-30.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Vadym Ursu31c81.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.763,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x7c47…1189backed Vadym Ursu31c80.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253455.9%19 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+26.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Andres Martin64c78.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1266452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Andres Martin53c74$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.924,68448.3%2,264 W · 2,420 L+35.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d2…fe64backed Vadym Ursu37c74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3819634.2%67 W · 129 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad06…b132backed Andres Martin63c73.6$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.017639.5%30 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Andres Martin50c71$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1993048.8%454 W · 476 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd866…55e0backed Vadym Ursu38c70.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0238460.4%232 W · 152 L+29.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Vadym Ursu36c69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8477047.9%369 W · 401 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b71…80ecbacked Vadym Ursu30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021149.8%105 W · 106 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Vadym Ursu36c66.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7888455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x42ac…7b70backed Vadym Ursu26c66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.161428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Vadym Ursu40c65$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ea…7129backed Vadym Ursu16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Vadym Ursu34c60.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.487635.5%27 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Vadym Ursu30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186344.4%28 W · 35 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Vadym Ursu45c59.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.831,13650%568 W · 568 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd51…ce69backed Andres Martin67c59.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7437156.3%209 W · 162 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Vadym Ursu36c56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1629244.5%130 W · 162 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Vadym Ursu36c56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1627246.3%126 W · 146 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93cb…6b6ebacked Vadym Ursu29c52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.233116.1%5 W · 26 L-5.9wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-65.8%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Vadym Ursu60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8335559.4%211 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Vadym Ursu36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa04…a178backed Vadym Ursu29c49.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.38633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Vadym Ursu55c46.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.796,55054.4%3,565 W · 2,985 L+287.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Andres Martin51c45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0530844.5%137 W · 171 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Andres Martin67c41.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.798450%42 W · 42 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Andres Martin48c40.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.152050%10 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x449e…4f8ebacked Andres Martin66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.613556.3%76 W · 59 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc59f…f632backed Vadym Ursu30c38.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.778361.4%51 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53c5…cb95backed Vadym Ursu33c33.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0924244.6%108 W · 134 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Andres Martin74c31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.031,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa923…6704backed Vadym Ursu38c26.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106336.5%23 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Andres Martin61c26.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.125737%95 W · 162 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Andres Martin65c26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.197,20149.7%3,577 W · 3,624 L+114.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Andres Martin68c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6833651.5%173 W · 163 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Andres Martin60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0229039.3%114 W · 176 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd13c…39adbacked Andres Martin64c18.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.771163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x586d…fb12backed Andres Martin73c18.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9521172%152 W · 59 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Andres Martin79c18.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.868,05750.8%4,089 W · 3,968 L+90.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.