MLB · resolved market
Giants vs. Twins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bdf450a424841648a85b6daf8098548bb49827e805bd2c4d330fcf067ddee7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twinsof Giants, Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Giants | 50c | 20,551$10,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,273.48 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Twins | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf980…6528backed Twins | 50c | 9,716$4,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,858 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Giants | 53c | 8,000$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,240 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 47c | 7,792$3,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,129.76 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…16f3backed Twins | 49c | 5,000$2,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,556.46 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Giants | 50c | 2,981$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Twins | 50c | 2,943$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.07 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Twins | 49c | 1,578$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.55 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Giants | 51c | 1,467$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.42 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Giants | 51c | 1,403$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.44 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Giants | 50c | 1,317$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.7 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Twins | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48f…7426backed Giants | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…96e4backed Giants | 23c | 525.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Twins | 69c | 463.44$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.98 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Giants | 51c | 402.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.52 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Twins | 76c | 400.48$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…046ebacked Giants | 33c | 305.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Giants | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Twins | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…b85cbacked Twins | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…654fbacked Twins | 52c | 290.38$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Giants | 14c | 288$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Twins | 54c | 245$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Twins | 50c | 218.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Giants | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Giants | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…d5d7backed Giants | 45c | 202.89$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Twins | 50c | 202$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Twins | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Twins | 51c | 199.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Giants | 47c | 196.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Twins | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Twins | 65c | 176.64$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Giants | 33c | 175.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…92bebacked Giants | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Giants | 56c | 140$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…a7b9backed Twins | 72c | 137.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Twins | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Giants | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 238 | 52.9%126 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Twins | 50c | 112.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Twins | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Giants | 38c | 104.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Giants | 50c | 100.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44f…38b7backed Twins | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Twins | 47c | 96.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Giants | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…e790backed Giants | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1803…772ebacked Twins | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Twins | 53c | 76.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Giants | 50c | 73.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Twins | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Twins | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Twins | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Giants | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Giants | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed Giants | 53c | 50.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Giants | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…2a51backed Giants | 48c | 46.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Twins | 50c | 41.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…ac06backed Giants | 48c | 41.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…f3d4backed Giants | 49c | 39.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Giants | 51c | 36.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…6ed8backed Giants | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Twins | 52c | 30.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3539…b17bbacked Twins | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Twins | 71c | 26.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…fd11backed Twins | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Giants | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Giants | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Twins | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.