TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,301
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,531

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,301 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes59c899.52$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.8160236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes54c643.06$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34525933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc17…886abacked No41c463$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.627281.9%59 W · 13 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick70cpaid+18.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No51c401.72$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.921,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes27c378.26$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.168,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No42c316.25$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.361,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No41c292$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.2852322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed Yes28c286.97$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9926025%65 W · 195 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No43c280.97$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.3110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3fd…d854backed No40c241$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1981…7e5ebacked No40c241$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+100.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No42c208.47$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.784,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No46c207$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.9615966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x987f…b37dbacked Yes55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010133.7%34 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No41c196.78$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.779,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No41c181.65$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.244,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes59c167$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.531,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No43c156.23$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7385049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No46c155.26$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.144,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes15c145.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.74,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes58c141.91$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3182742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked Yes57c139.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.228368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes36c139.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked No72c138.05$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5941966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes57c132.19$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.991,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes51c130.82$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.825261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No40c129$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8297…d600backed Yes51c125.26$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1913448.5%65 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c125.06$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes53c121$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0828142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes17c118.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes58c112.49$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.243452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No62c107.65$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4477151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6394…485fbacked Yes54c103.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564238.1%16 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No70c91.05$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.132,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No68c89.31$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes44c87.8$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0240337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No45c85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.751,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes52c83.39$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0437942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes48c82.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8346148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd052…d930backed Yes61c78.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.78540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31af…5c86backed No46c76.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0931836.8%117 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No41c73.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.613,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No41c72.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9739543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2139…4ca8backed Yes54c71.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.13557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No41c70$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.327552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc68e…fb84backed Yes51c66.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes59c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.44,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes62c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3718555.7%103 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No52c56.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.472,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x917e…516cbacked No77c56.86$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.991190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.28per pick63cpaid+46.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No45c56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0764167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes40c46.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.565,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes26c46.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0214919.5%29 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed No59c46.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.917940.8%73 W · 106 L+29.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+113.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No41c44.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.275,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No56c44.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.532,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23e8…9373backed No43c44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.085675%42 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e44…2c35backed Yes58c43.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.48350.6%42 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a0…d8e3backed No45c43.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.174153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No41c43.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.523,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No62c43.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.591,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No69c42.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3249646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes59c42.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2628546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked No42c42.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8981855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8189…a808backed Yes56c41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No67c39.18$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No43c36.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No44c35.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.886,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed No73c35.42$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.729769.1%67 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes54c34.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.641,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No60c34.55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.672,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…2162backed Yes58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205058%29 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No58c34.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.542,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No52c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8418567.6%125 W · 60 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No40c32.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7976059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3e…3865backed Yes51c32.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.829176.9%70 W · 21 L+9.6wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes62c31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1347866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes58c29.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2942555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No46c29.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.024,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a9…6f76backed No75c29.04$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.313966.7%26 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No59c28.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.762,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No44c28.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.82,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No46c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.095,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes58c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.244,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c27.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e0…e538backed Yes58c27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.617245.8%33 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bed…bbf5backed No65c26.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1811856.8%67 W · 51 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes59c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac22…363ebacked Yes58c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.514243.7%62 W · 80 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7525541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x47e6…c039backed Yes60c24.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1518242.3%77 W · 105 L-19.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes61c24.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513943.9%61 W · 78 L-12.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39c3…e155backed Yes61c24.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525447.6%121 W · 133 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No48c21.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26f8…3770backed Yes58c21.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.61,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf651…86b1backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106157.4%35 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.