AI · resolved market
GPT ads by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d0a59f9f89eb7e6903c80235a6615348685e0cec65f83ef8b706f9d874c6074
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 3,121$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 1,077$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked Yes | 48c | 1,039$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 1c | 890$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed No | 34c | 586.97$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.69 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 27c | 475.03$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf26…9084backed Yes | 42c | 333.61$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 16c | 311.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…0e46backed No | 79c | 241.34$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 66c | 188.71$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 43c | 167.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…a36bbacked No | 40c | 147.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 136.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…bf1dbacked No | 45c | 120$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 55c | 111.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…ef49backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff5…48fabacked No | 51c | 88.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 21c | 76.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…5c19backed No | 67c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0945…347dbacked No | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f5…3464backed No | 77c | 51.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…32b5backed No | 40c | 49.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…fc8cbacked No | 42c | 47.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027a…d1f9backed No | 79c | 44.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…f36fbacked No | 53c | 37.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…a5a9backed No | 40c | 37.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…107abacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7a…95a2backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 58c | 25.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4df…250fbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…4d58backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…59babacked No | 59c | 18.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…c288backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT ads by January 31?this page
- GPT ads by December 31?No won
- GPT ads by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.