NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Nets: O/U 220.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d8842e257b84f239b2a3465a5ee0191a8be366f5831992b21a9fff1e13ac376

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,622
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,821

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,622 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb552…94a8backed Over	52c	2,881$1,498 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,382.88	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	53c	384.59$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180.11	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ac…64e1backed Over	77c	129.87$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.87	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under	45c	108$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.6	876	47.5%416 W · 460 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Over	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	226	48.2%109 W · 117 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under	23c	93$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.39	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	46c	93$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.78	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	21c	60.52$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	57c	56$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.09	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc4…63f6backed Over	67c	39.99$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under	44c	36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	266	48.5%129 W · 137 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under	44c	36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	251	50.2%126 W · 125 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd95…52fbbacked Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	139	38.8%54 W · 85 L	-14.7wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	33c	34.87$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.51	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under	40c	29.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f74…cfc7backed Under	41c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nuggets vs. Nets: O/U 220.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event