NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Nets: O/U 218.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b04c153c2e840b813a4c8f968329a15a066341b3de8b0d0e4877da508276c5

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,118 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	54c	2,704$1,460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,243.81	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Over	66c	883$580 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.49	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under	33c	199.72$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.45	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7289…8d16backed Over	60c	166.67$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	133	54.1%72 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cbf…82abbacked Over	56c	125$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	169	45.6%77 W · 92 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under	33c	103.53$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.16	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Over	68c	99$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.68	332	58.7%195 W · 137 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	33c	92.47$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.52	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Over	68c	85.29$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.29	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under	41c	72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.52	876	47.5%416 W · 460 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under	40c	36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	315	51.1%161 W · 154 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Under	40c	35.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	366	51.4%188 W · 178 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38db…d245backed Over	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	100	58%58 W · 42 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	37c	32.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over	55c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33f3…d80abacked Over	65c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Under	40c	28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	252	50.8%128 W · 124 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Under	40c	26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	271	50.2%136 W · 135 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…0f55backed Over	58c	25.17$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.57	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x254f…2fb8backed Over	57c	24.21$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.41	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9105…1ae2backed Over	58c	23.97$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.07	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe74e…90b6backed Over	57c	23.68$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.18	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x699a…38febacked Over	57c	23.51$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.11	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf69b…617fbacked Over	58c	23.45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.85	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…0997backed Over	67c	22.39$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.39	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82be…627bbacked Over	58c	22.24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.34	50	50%25 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x709c…7347backed Over	58c	22.07$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.27	54	53.7%29 W · 25 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9b…ae51backed Over	58c	21.55$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.05	59	52.5%31 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570b…1263backed Over	58c	21.55$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.05	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c8…a2aabacked Over	58c	20.52$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.62	50	48%24 W · 26 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7028…8512backed Over	58c	19.48$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.18	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f19…87dabacked Over	58c	19.48$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.18	60	53.3%32 W · 28 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nuggets vs. Nets: O/U 218.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event