TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Netsof Nuggets, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,629 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbf51…4a30backed Nets58c4,298$2,500 inWon+$1,798.4376746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Nuggets43c1,341$577 inLost-$57714061.4%86 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Nets58c999.71$581 inWon+$418.6851651%263 W · 253 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets56c958.89$537 inWon+$421.599,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Nuggets42c850$357 inLost-$35711940.3%48 W · 71 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets67c557.09$374 inWon+$182.968,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Nuggets41c400$164 inLost-$16421858.7%128 W · 90 L+17.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Nuggets43c400$172 inLost-$1728739.1%34 W · 53 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Nets55c349.64$192 inWon+$157.341,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets41c323.38$133 inLost-$132.585,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Nets58c300$174 inWon+$12661747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Nets55c300$165 inWon+$1351,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Nets55c200$110 inWon+$902,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed Nets57c181$103 inWon+$77.8310255.9%57 W · 45 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Nets58c172.41$100 inWon+$72.4161056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Nuggets41c160$66 inLost-$65.634451.5%177 W · 167 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5d…e82ebacked Nets70c100$70 inWon+$3014252.1%74 W · 68 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Nets58c86.21$50 inWon+$36.211,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Nuggets41c80$33 inLost-$32.862349.6%309 W · 314 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Nuggets41c80$33 inLost-$32.81,02848.5%499 W · 529 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Nuggets41c80$33 inLost-$32.871747.6%341 W · 376 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Nuggets41c48$20 inLost-$19.6831754.6%173 W · 144 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Nuggets41c48$20 inLost-$19.6834254.1%185 W · 157 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Nets57c43.86$25 inWon+$18.8619951.8%103 W · 96 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Nuggets41c40$16 inLost-$16.428852.8%152 W · 136 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Nuggets41c40$16 inLost-$16.423348.9%114 W · 119 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Nuggets41c40$16 inLost-$16.412545.6%57 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Nets55c36.8$20 inWon+$16.5612727.6%35 W · 92 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Nuggets41c36$15 inLost-$14.7634053.8%183 W · 157 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Nuggets41c33.81$14 inLost-$13.8650648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Nuggets41c32$13 inLost-$13.1220456.4%115 W · 89 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Nuggets42c26.7$11 inLost-$11.213452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.