NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Nets: O/U 222.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa62c2f5aaf557133184a53a14e4d2f25e5e3d821d4349148b047ba4accbac742

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,071
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $15,286

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,071 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	54c	2,200$1,188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,011.23	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	46c	2,200$1,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,011.83	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	1,908$925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$924.73	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89bd…3f72backed Over	52c	1,077$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$516.96	112	43.8%49 W · 63 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…dc71backed Over	55c	999.99$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under	4c	499$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Under	44c	399.99$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	287	51.9%149 W · 138 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c36…9433backed Over	56c	290.36$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.36	156	41.7%65 W · 91 L	-13.9wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	52c	261.55$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.54	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over	58c	200$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under	49c	144$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.56	876	47.5%416 W · 460 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae53…d80bbacked Under	45c	138.87$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.49	409	52.1%213 W · 196 L	+16.3wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Over	56c	71.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.43	250	58.4%146 W · 104 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	44c	71.43$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.43	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…ed59backed Under	45c	66.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	105	50.5%53 W · 52 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	51c	66$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.34	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	50c	59.86$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.93	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over	51c	48$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.52	342	54.1%185 W · 157 L	+16.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Under	45c	41.53$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.74	383	47%180 W · 203 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under	49c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	266	48.5%129 W · 137 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under	49c	36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	251	50.2%126 W · 125 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	43c	34.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…3f14backed Under	45c	34.59$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.61	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over	51c	28.01$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.72	218	58.7%128 W · 90 L	+17.1wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb771…e3fbbacked Over	53c	22.64$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.64	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Over	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	131	55%72 W · 59 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Over	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	125	45.6%57 W · 68 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nuggets vs. Nets: O/U 222.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event