NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Nets: O/U 223.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e4b456c20925beaff4754195b2c54517c8a1ea8f57295ac51b0bdf5135f5897

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,806
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,806 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	44c	9,447$4,193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,192.81	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	54c	7,455$4,027 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,428.02	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over	57c	6,749$3,847 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,902	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	45c	3,810$1,715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,714.68	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	47c	3,674$1,727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,726.7	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over	54c	3,091$1,675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,416.22	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf42…d698backed Under	48c	1,529$734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$734.14	170	31.8%54 W · 116 L	-24.9wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over	54c	1,389$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$638.89	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under	48c	1,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	579	50.1%290 W · 289 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	55c	892$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$402	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x177c…bcd1backed Under	25c	731.08$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.77	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over	54c	647.63$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$298.25	1,150	49.5%569 W · 581 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Over	55c	509$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$229.14	220	55%121 W · 99 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under	4c	499.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Over	53c	450$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.5	591	44.5%263 W · 328 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over	75c	386$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.75	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	75c	353.39$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.24	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	44c	208.99$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.01	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over	54c	92.59$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.59	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Over	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	373	52%194 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	52c	83$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.96	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	46c	75$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.65	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	45c	66.96$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	45c	46$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	47c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Over	52c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.08	289	43.3%125 W · 164 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2440…4f7ebacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nuggets vs. Nets: O/U 223.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event