NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Nets: O/U 221.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eb9be2a452a62aed79e0389564438abc641dd6d03fa993723c5668398a5549d

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $121,432
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $122,012

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,432 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbf42…d698backed Under	45c	108,604$48,846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48,845.57	170	31.8%54 W · 116 L	-24.9wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over	55c	97,406$53,573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43,832.53	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	55c	8,106$4,428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,678.38	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Over	56c	3,182$1,782 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,399.93	185	47%87 W · 98 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,500	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	48c	2,936$1,398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,397.6	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Over	55c	2,000$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	320	51.9%166 W · 154 L	+10.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under	41c	1,000$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	346	45.7%158 W · 188 L	+12.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over	59c	867$512 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$355.47	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	72c	833$602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.37	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over	58c	400$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.26	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb48f…d015backed Over	50c	350.91$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.91	124	54.8%68 W · 56 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	52c	250$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under	44c	224.55$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.42	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Under	41c	188.27$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.19	270	51.5%139 W · 131 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Under	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	141	27.7%39 W · 102 L	-16.4wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over	55c	100$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under	47c	72$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.84	876	47.5%416 W · 460 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over	57c	70.77$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.77	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	53c	51$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.97	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under	47c	48$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.44	251	50.2%126 W · 125 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x825f…0997backed Over	55c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under	47c	36$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.92	266	48.5%129 W · 137 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over	51c	32$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.68	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	53c	31.95$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.02	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	42c	27.59$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb15…f4f8backed Over	58c	27.59$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.59	82	54.9%45 W · 37 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	59cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over	55c	26.7$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.01	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over	59c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.25	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nuggets vs. Nets: O/U 221.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event