TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Nets: O/U 219.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,771 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb552…94a8backed Over54c8,212$4,399 inWon+$3,812.812,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under45c5,829$2,644 inLost-$2,643.739,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over55c2,184$1,196 inWon+$987.841,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over51c1,022$521 inWon+$500.5750754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under2c500$10 inLost-$1067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over66c457.58$300 inWon+$157.5846258.2%269 W · 193 L-0.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under45c447$200 inLost-$200.018,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Under45c280$126 inLost-$1267341.1%30 W · 43 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under35c200$70 inLost-$701,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6921…2345backed Over66c151.67$100 inWon+$51.6717041.8%71 W · 99 L-12.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Under46c146.89$68 inLost-$67.5723250.4%117 W · 115 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Under44c120.76$53 inLost-$53.1376247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under44c100$44 inLost-$443,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under46c100$46 inLost-$461,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under44c100$44 inLost-$442,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Under44c100$44 inLost-$4443246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under44c78$34 inLost-$34.321,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under44c50$22 inLost-$222,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x334f…0d32backed Over56c40$22 inWon+$17.613652.2%71 W · 65 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Under44c37.26$17 inLost-$16.5822247.3%105 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Over62c32.26$20 inWon+$12.2624248.3%117 W · 125 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under46c25.12$12 inLost-$11.5637755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ee8…be6bbacked Over54c20$11 inWon+$9.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+140.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.