NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Nets: O/U 225.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33eb441380cc73d4c96bc2d419b5f70f4dd313a162b8a33791e20422c32d80ab

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $169,323
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $171,289

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,323 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Under	51c	89,740$45,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45,470.25	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	49c	49,213$24,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,873.55	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Under	50c	27,981$13,895 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,895.36	579	50.1%290 W · 289 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	23,222$11,456 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,765.03	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0352…3292backed Over	52c	12,600$6,492 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,108	101	58.4%59 W · 42 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	50c	12,435$6,229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,205.87	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Over	52c	9,015$4,688 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,327.08	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over	50c	4,701$2,347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,353.64	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07fc…7ac6backed Over	49c	4,400$2,156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,244	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-35%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	49c	4,100$2,008 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,091.99	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	49c	4,000$1,960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,040	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Under	52c	3,181$1,654 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,654.29	477	51.8%247 W · 230 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Under	48c	2,917$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	387	50.4%195 W · 192 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…85f3backed Under	51c	2,455$1,252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,252.05	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	-3.5wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	60c	2,224$1,339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$885.04	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cce…5c2fbacked Under	48c	2,083$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	162	54.3%88 W · 74 L	+7.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc617…a854backed Under	49c	1,961$961 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$961.37	426	48.1%205 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Over	48c	1,683$808 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$875.16	106	42.5%45 W · 61 L	-6.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	45c	1,340$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.89	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under	48c	1,104$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.85	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over	49c	1,071$525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$546.21	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	48c	1,000$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over	51c	980$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.2	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	49c	800$392 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$408	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf341…b5f6backed Over	55c	791.91$436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$356.36	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe77f…8793backed Over	59c	675.33$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$275.33	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-7.3wins	-0.16per pick	47cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	34c	583.33$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.53	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0623…4e38backed Over	66c	563.33$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.53	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	41c	544.84$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.99	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under	5c	495.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Under	53c	437.74$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	193	59.6%115 W · 78 L	+14.1wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	49c	390.2$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.33	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed Over	54c	330.14$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.87	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	-5.9wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under	51c	314.15$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.22	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff8…aa3abacked Over	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Over	48c	208.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.33	126	50%63 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf60…f8d5backed Under	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	98	44.9%44 W · 54 L	-5.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over	50c	150$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Over	74c	148$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.1	289	43.3%125 W · 164 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9050…0a7abacked Over	48c	141.79$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.73	183	54.1%99 W · 84 L	+11.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Over	49c	118.8$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.59	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over	49c	107.14$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.64	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Over	48c	96.35$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.1	126	54%68 W · 58 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under	51c	84.31$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Over	55c	81.82$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.82	82	56.1%46 W · 36 L	+5.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Under	52c	60$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	197	54.3%107 W · 90 L	+12.3wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Under	51c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	336	50.6%170 W · 166 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Over	53c	45$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.15	624	50%312 W · 312 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa75d…1d45backed Under	47c	42.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	223	47.1%105 W · 118 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Under	34c	40.77$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	77c	29.88$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.9	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4deb…0127backed Over	55c	28.85$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.98	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d9…7ec6backed Over	51c	26.12$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.8	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8d…4dc6backed Over	50c	23.76$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.94	54	57.4%31 W · 23 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Over	50c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	421	43.7%184 W · 237 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	48c	22.92$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.92	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04fa…526dbacked Over	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+2.4wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+46.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Nuggets vs. Nets: O/U 225.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event