MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e9e3ab2613852797a1cf8e2320f04ab4f1b21cb7f7ec8b00ad83a5a8654ffcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 3,342$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 2,742$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.62 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 2,070$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 2,027$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.28 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 1,714$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.78 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 1,602$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 1,025$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.18 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 646$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 631$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 618$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.47 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd25…7d10backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 406$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.77 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 307.61$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.58 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 299.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 294$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 232.39$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 196.68$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 181$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 143$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 124.87$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 118.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 82.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 76.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 73.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 58.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55d…22d9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 48.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 46.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 45.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 40.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 37.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 37.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 31.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 30.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 29.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 21.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.