MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd368a4f73d9a41fca636b3f68e1ed319481a787b2393def2678903a48a43e54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 12,704$4,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,193.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 8,788$5,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,163.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 75c | 2,774$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.72 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 1,074$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.55 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 757.29$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.19 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Washington Nationals | 75c | 685$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.3 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 366.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 305$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Washington Nationals | 78c | 256.47$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Washington Nationals | 80c | 219.65$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 200.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 166$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 63.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Washington Nationals | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5615…0d83backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 42.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 76c | 32.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 31.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Washington Nationals | 75c | 24.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.