MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6c70be0182e36f833fe5c33318cd61bbde210c934526989bc8509bd0b9ab9e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 11,809$6,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,094.06 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 9,311$4,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,256.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over | 54c | 9,198$4,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,231.08 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | +16.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 3,187$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 2,542$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 64c | 1,518$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.06 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 45c | 1,000$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.21 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 51c | 797.91$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.6 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Under | 64c | 746.92$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.03 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 46c | 620$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.8 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 29c | 588.24$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.26 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 580$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 511.62$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.62 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 66c | 433.45$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.76 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Over | 53c | 400.77$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.36 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 64c | 363.57$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.25 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 16c | 303$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 25c | 266.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Under | 58c | 262.07$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 226.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 15c | 202.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.3 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 57c | 167.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…3d27backed Under | 36c | 144.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 57c | 133.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 77c | 126.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 57c | 118$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 40c | 117.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 69c | 114.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 69c | 114.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 58c | 111$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 53c | 98.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 33c | 98.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 77c | 85.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 74.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 79c | 72.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 56c | 72.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Under | 71c | 70.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Under | 58c | 56.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Under | 73c | 41.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 39c | 38.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 69c | 31.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Over | 54c | 26.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 57c | 23.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 74c | 23.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 46c | 23.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…86b1backed Under | 65c | 18.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.