Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f763caec0cbfd4bb1ea7b735b1375907f643b7f0b2cc54d840efd135402ae62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 34c | 1,206$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.97 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 1,066$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.57 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 71c | 669.91$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.34 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 554.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 38c | 404.66$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.61 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 42c | 350.59$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.26 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 318.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 298.81$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 257.95$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 214$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 170$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…541dbacked Yes | 60c | 166.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 58c | 165$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.37 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 155.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 64c | 149.69$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 138.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 109$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 48c | 99.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 95.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 51c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 62c | 71.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 52c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 49c | 68.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 67.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 29c | 62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 60.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 51c | 48.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 50c | 45.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 56c | 42.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 42.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 41.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 48c | 40.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 43c | 40.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 46c | 40.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…d7eabacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 43c | 39.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 36.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 68c | 36.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 37c | 35.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 46c | 33.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 49c | 33.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 39c | 33.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 27.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 57c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed Yes | 43c | 25.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 24.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 58c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…3963backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.