TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,586 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes38c1,007$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.211,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed No63c988.84$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.8528324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c411.7$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.774,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes38c339.56$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.5356048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No50c329.78$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.464,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No59c272.94$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3442754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes37c240.25$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.251,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes61c185.53$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.816,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No56c169.9$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1413444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes62c148.46$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.382,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No36c144.51$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.962,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes38c140.84$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.21,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No58c129.93$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.612,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes30c124.18$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.943,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes38c123.93$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3894552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No67c119.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No12c116.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.282,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes38c105.3$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.745,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No65c100.16$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.115553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625547.3%26 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.51,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6724442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes36c94.63$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.939,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes38c93.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.992,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c92.07$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No20c90.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.347,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes43c84.7$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4537144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No57c84.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.413,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No64c78.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.222,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes37c78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.142,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No38c77.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c75$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.554,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No67c74.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018565.4%121 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes35c70.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.822,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c70.08$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.544,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes31c66.79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.092,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No68c59.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3542160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No45c59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.434,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbc06…8d59backed Yes42c58.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.032100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes43c58.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1414434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes43c53.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.489635.4%34 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.765,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2350…a351backed No69c50.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354560%27 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes43c50.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.727130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes23c50.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6390734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3117255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No65c48.22$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.482,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes30c46.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7121451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes30c43.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5787629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6784…7565backed Yes34c43.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.656451.6%33 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes33c42.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.428348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No72c41.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3047175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes37c41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9428344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x296e…0b9abacked Yes42c40.64$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.625722.8%13 W · 44 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-37.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1533962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf993…ad52backed Yes43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.84443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.88245.1%37 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a86…9f83backed Yes79c38.13$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.138476.2%64 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes34c38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.081,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes37c35.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.41,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes60c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes36c34.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.252828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbe45…52cbbacked Yes35c34.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.581936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes40c33.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.245,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes65c32.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.444050%20 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No65c32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.81,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes34c31.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7928441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes46c31.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.922,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No66c30.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes36c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1722744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes38c28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3686949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No69c27.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8642555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes40c26.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9229345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No62c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.554253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3e…814abacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156350.8%32 W · 31 L+8.9wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+37.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No69c23.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.221,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes51c21.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.322,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.161,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No63c19.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.321,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No64c16.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4824164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes74c15.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.941966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.