Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xded16840a01885091d005b9c675228d91d7410efb736b07ac80ba9e5984e9c22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 45c | 538.17$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 76c | 510.24$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 65c | 484.51$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.9 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 71c | 382.46$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.12 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 269.15$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 48c | 216.95$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 199$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 188.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 172.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 38c | 167.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 131.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 122.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 121.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 53c | 118.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.54 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 20c | 108$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 101.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 100.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 97.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 75c | 94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 22c | 90.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 85.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 83.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 80.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 57c | 78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 76.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 26c | 74.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 51c | 70.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 67.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 53c | 66.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 39c | 64.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 62.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 30c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 68c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 36c | 55.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 60c | 51.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 44c | 50.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 75c | 49.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 44c | 47.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 66c | 47.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 46.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 80c | 46.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 36c | 40.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 39.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 35c | 39.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 40c | 35.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 34c | 32.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 69c | 30.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 69c | 29.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 68c | 29.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 28.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 38c | 28.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 49c | 24.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 21.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 66c | 19.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 66c | 19.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 19.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 65c | 16.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 16.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 77c | 16.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.