TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Brasilia: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Galan

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gustavo Heideof Gustavo Heide, Daniel Galan
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$164,826
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,826 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Daniel Galan23c14,180$3,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,245.262,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Daniel Galan41c12,267$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.1955646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Daniel Galan10c9,745$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.211,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Gustavo Heide61c5,750$3,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,214.1981349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Gustavo Heide56c4,312$2,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.792,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9a…412ebacked Daniel Galan37c3,656$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35213439.6%53 W · 81 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Gustavo Heide67c3,587$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.166,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Daniel Galan33c3,036$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed Gustavo Heide62c3,000$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,14022553.8%121 W · 104 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Daniel Galan20c2,496$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50052460.9%319 W · 205 L+0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cef…71b4backed Daniel Galan42c2,494$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04120045%90 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Gustavo Heide61c2,491$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.5711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751b…90fbbacked Daniel Galan41c2,252$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93120758%120 W · 87 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Gustavo Heide67c2,039$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.736,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Daniel Galan46c1,984$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.532729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Gustavo Heide66c1,885$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.9530241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Daniel Galan28c1,885$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.6432031.3%100 W · 220 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Gustavo Heide62c1,737$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.381,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f2…a822backed Gustavo Heide55c1,683$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.3511158.6%65 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Daniel Galan18c1,515$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.676,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab9…5b82backed Daniel Galan26c1,274$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.29135.2%32 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Daniel Galan62c1,124$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.2338652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b01…125ebacked Daniel Galan51c1,000$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.125050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f70…9f21backed Daniel Galan34c946.14$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.432462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Daniel Galan23c927.39$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.114,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Daniel Galan45c899.99$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.53,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…b1a9backed Daniel Galan15c866.67$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Gustavo Heide67c825.5$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.052,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Daniel Galan30c761.67$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.77,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Daniel Galan33c616.39$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2568026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Daniel Galan35c600$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2131,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cee…3f91backed Daniel Galan14c572.17$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.249824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Daniel Galan36c560.03$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Daniel Galan41c558.69$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23132842.7%140 W · 188 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb2c…8fd9backed Gustavo Heide62c558.31$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Gustavo Heide53c551.46$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.5796755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Gustavo Heide54c550.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.6221758.1%126 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f95…b08bbacked Gustavo Heide59c527.31$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.2511045.5%50 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Gustavo Heide50c514.78$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.7898240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Gustavo Heide71c431.87$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.953,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Gustavo Heide58c414.7$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.91,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa42…2ff3backed Gustavo Heide62c400$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1544742.6%20 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Daniel Galan46c399.99$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1841,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d6…01ccbacked Daniel Galan38c368.07$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401,07762.8%676 W · 401 L-27.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Daniel Galan28c354.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018659.7%111 W · 75 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Daniel Galan37c334.57$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.671,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…dea4backed Gustavo Heide74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785242.3%22 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Gustavo Heide78c274.38$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.874,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Gustavo Heide76c274$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0597046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Gustavo Heide59c273.98$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.911,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31dd…7159backed Daniel Galan30c266.87$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0590340.2%363 W · 540 L+4.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Daniel Galan32c259.62$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4619550.8%99 W · 96 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Gustavo Heide53c256.51$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5665849.4%325 W · 333 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Gustavo Heide74c255$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.151,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Daniel Galan33c233.51$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3957252.3%299 W · 273 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Gustavo Heide54c222.22$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2227539.6%109 W · 166 L+1.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d3…bd58backed Daniel Galan46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Gustavo Heide62c211.32$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.331,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Daniel Galan39c207.15$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a32…9875backed Gustavo Heide67c200$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Gustavo Heide77c198$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0137342.6%159 W · 214 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Daniel Galan41c195.36$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Daniel Galan37c189.61$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1635040.9%143 W · 207 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Gustavo Heide54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.191,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Gustavo Heide72c173.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4813456.7%76 W · 58 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55fc…8b73backed Daniel Galan40c172.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704742.6%20 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Gustavo Heide53c172.49$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.0742046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Gustavo Heide54c162$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5285748.2%413 W · 444 L+33.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Gustavo Heide55c160.87$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.175748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a33…7909backed Gustavo Heide74c160.39$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae31…c586backed Gustavo Heide56c154.84$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.134548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Gustavo Heide68c147.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0512153.7%65 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf08…2948backed Daniel Galan41c144.98$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b9…9ab5backed Daniel Galan36c138.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5021256.1%119 W · 93 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Daniel Galan37c135.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Daniel Galan37c131.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1331753.6%170 W · 147 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e7b…9716backed Daniel Galan38c131.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506134.4%21 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-31.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xd280…54f4backed Daniel Galan45c127.51$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.382524%6 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-40.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed Daniel Galan41c123.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5067239.1%263 W · 409 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Daniel Galan41c111.32$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.441,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Daniel Galan34c109.93$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.912,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Daniel Galan59c109.14$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8925957.5%149 W · 110 L+18.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe092…d209backed Daniel Galan47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019142.4%81 W · 110 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Gustavo Heide57c104$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1499056%554 W · 436 L+32.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f49…b482backed Daniel Galan41c103.31$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9c7…007dbacked Daniel Galan10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105927.1%16 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Daniel Galan26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2669249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Gustavo Heide64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3677967.8%528 W · 251 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked Daniel Galan46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4651539.8%205 W · 310 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b2…b787backed Daniel Galan28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2860%0 W · 6 L-3.3wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Daniel Galan47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.96740.3%27 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Daniel Galan58c94$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.214,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Daniel Galan47c87.17$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x035b…3ca0backed Daniel Galan30c85.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.481952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Gustavo Heide62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6527935.8%100 W · 179 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Gustavo Heide63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3731643%136 W · 180 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff1…4766backed Gustavo Heide58c77.85$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8516762.3%104 W · 63 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Daniel Galan28c77.63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.883,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x537a…7447backed Daniel Galan46c76.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530351.8%157 W · 146 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa388…511fbacked Gustavo Heide65c74.06$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.923281.3%26 W · 6 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+27.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.