Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ffd250ccb96833238ec1c8e08915985cac2963d6a78dbfe3d26b46b1441c2a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8438…02febacked Yes | 1c | 7,262$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 1,883$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 425$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 400.7$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad80…eca5backed Yes | 30c | 252.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 227.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 21c | 214.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 184.65$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 19c | 181.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 10c | 180$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 18c | 178.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 165.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0855…ae26backed Yes | 13c | 162.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 161.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 150.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 148$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 134.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 132.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 114.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 30c | 109.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 18c | 109.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 108.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 17c | 107$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 18c | 103.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 101.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 21c | 92.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 33c | 85.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 82.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 74.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 19c | 73.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 78c | 62.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 20c | 60.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c7…5378backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 59.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 62c | 53.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 51.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 78c | 46.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 78c | 41.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes | 34c | 38.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 25.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 58c | 24.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 80c | 22.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 17.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 16.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.