Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d9e8fcc3a96e99e0732a549e41f92186d37368c74c13acad8494f70f8f9d6ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,242$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.46 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 952.04$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.8 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 27c | 785.1$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.3 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 647.37$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 400.7$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 9c | 393$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 18c | 377.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 331.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8438…02febacked Yes | 21c | 280.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 215.29$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 210.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 208$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 203.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked No | 74c | 192.62$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked Yes | 22c | 176.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 21c | 150.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 142.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 140.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 139.04$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 9c | 138.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 133.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c02…ad12backed No | 78c | 129.54$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 124.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 124.42$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 114.63$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 13c | 112.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 18c | 109.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 77c | 107.7$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 102.34$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 30c | 98.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 27c | 92.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 91.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 85.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 74c | 82.54$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes | 25c | 80.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x352f…fda2backed Yes | 14c | 78.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 77.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 66.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 59.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…5368backed Yes | 25c | 58.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 58.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 47.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 28c | 43.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 42.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 41.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 21.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 21.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 16.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed No | 75c | 13.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 13.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.