Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24f944798f322198e0fc646d26420d5dc5251e73522188ddc991c11281be3a36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 30c | 2,329$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.81 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 1,037$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 37c | 780.13$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.67 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 598.06$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 505.03$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.35 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 38c | 475.54$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.42 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 400.7$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 270.16$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked Yes | 34c | 254.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.81 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0958backed Yes | 34c | 249.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.81 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 249.08$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 69c | 218.82$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 214.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 211.87$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 209.54$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 199.7$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8438…02febacked Yes | 20c | 197.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 47c | 192.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 40c | 177.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 31c | 160$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 154.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 67c | 153$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 146.53$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 141$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 139.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 138.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 134.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 56c | 131.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 79c | 130$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe67f…eefdbacked No | 77c | 128.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 116.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 114.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 35c | 114.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 28c | 113.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 107.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.3 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 31c | 106.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 37c | 104.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 34c | 102.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 99.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 21c | 98.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 34c | 97.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 39c | 90.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 41c | 85.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…018fbacked Yes | 21c | 85.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…14f4backed Yes | 24c | 85.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…9bc4backed Yes | 31c | 82.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked Yes | 29c | 82.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 27c | 79.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 76.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 39c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 31c | 74.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 33c | 69.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 65.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 64.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 63.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 25c | 60.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 59.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 56.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…7ef0backed Yes | 32c | 55.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 30c | 53.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…0a23backed Yes | 37c | 52.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 68c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 40c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 72c | 47.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 27c | 45.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 30c | 44.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 72c | 44.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 71c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 42.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2c…8099backed No | 71c | 40.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…14c2backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…09febacked Yes | 46c | 39.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…9009backed Yes | 38c | 39.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 38c | 39.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 76c | 39.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 72c | 39.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a1…a26bbacked Yes | 30c | 39.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 69c | 36.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…0710backed Yes | 31c | 35.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fef…e307backed Yes | 34c | 35.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec50…e521backed Yes | 30c | 33.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…eeb0backed Yes | 32c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed Yes | 38c | 31.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.