TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sinnerof Sinner, Tien
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,847

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,847 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa1b3…0329backed Tien23c17,701$4,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,152.8210440.4%42 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Sinner74c8,467$6,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,169.611852.5%62 W · 56 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13ff…16a3backed Tien29c5,647$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.231540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Sinner75c4,644$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.4736968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Sinner71c3,000$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.3629146%134 W · 157 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0457…4403backed Sinner74c2,980$2,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.236829.4%20 W · 48 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Sinner76c2,646$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.171,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Tien25c2,500$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.9923945.6%109 W · 130 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Tien25c2,134$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.967,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Tien24c2,100$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50413135.9%47 W · 84 L+0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Tien25c2,074$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.784,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Sinner75c2,002$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.265160.8%31 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tien27c1,231$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.371,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Sinner70c1,021$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.433948.7%19 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a80…8c5ebacked Sinner70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Tien25c999$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.7524634.1%84 W · 162 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Tien25c991.52$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.147146.5%33 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf332…e7b3backed Sinner70c714.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.29875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+42.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Sinner70c680.71$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.2165849.4%325 W · 333 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Tien11c674.67$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.931,37916.4%226 W · 1,153 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2133…816ebacked Sinner74c541.89$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.89650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96cb…75cbbacked Tien29c416.38$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.711426.3%30 W · 84 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e1…8b57backed Sinner70c347.14$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.144461.4%27 W · 17 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Tien26c321.12$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8367836%244 W · 434 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x759c…05e2backed Sinner75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6719649%96 W · 100 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f50…8341backed Sinner73c205$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.51931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-46.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Sinner75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5036161.8%223 W · 138 L+41.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed Sinner74c169.17$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1738951.9%202 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Sinner75c160.52$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.131080%8 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+29.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Tien24c148.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.049,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdeb…8cd1backed Sinner70c139.92$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.923554.3%19 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9a7…b64dbacked Sinner75c133.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7210863.9%69 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb408…e303backed Sinner75c133.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.411050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Tien25c115.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.91,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Tien26c88.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.263,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8def…59b2backed Sinner75c80.07$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.07666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f07…8626backed Sinner76c79.08$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.08450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0850…cb8cbacked Tien28c71.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207330.1%22 W · 51 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1736…32f1backed Tien28c71.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Sinner70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4369253.3%369 W · 323 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47b8…76f2backed Sinner70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.431861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Tien19c68.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.065113.7%7 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade2…e86dbacked Tien30c50.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1552661.2%322 W · 204 L+1.8wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Sinner79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.535559.4%211 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Tien25c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.167,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Tien26c42.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.039244.6%41 W · 51 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Tien30c41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.35032%16 W · 34 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf6a5…afc0backed Sinner74c28.38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.38683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d16…0abbbacked Sinner70c22.88$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.861546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63d0…1a1abacked Sinner70c20.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.218861.4%54 W · 34 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebcb…dd4bbacked Sinner74c20.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.346556.9%37 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9a…e8c6backed Sinner73c20.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Sinner70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65377.4%41 W · 12 L+7.5wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9346…df81backed Sinner75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe68f…58edbacked Sinner72c16.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.531457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.