Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x702000fd972830dc14ca34674c26080e4a969ebdbad3f130366d5c0cb2ae983d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 1,606$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 596$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 78c | 512.34$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.34 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 15c | 438.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 368.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 295.8$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 75c | 265.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 25c | 255.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 241.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 10c | 200.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 21c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 12c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 155$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 153.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 149.96$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 120.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 116.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…8c7ebacked Yes | 22c | 116.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 111.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 26c | 102.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 102$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 99.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 23c | 87.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 75c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 82.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 16c | 77.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 75.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 67.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 62.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 24c | 62.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 18c | 56.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 30c | 48.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 24c | 46.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 46.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 45.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 34c | 34.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 31.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…2a2cbacked No | 80c | 30.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 80c | 25.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 78c | 23.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 66c | 18.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 18.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 80c | 16.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.