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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gentle Matesof Gentle Mates, Nongshim RedForce
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,757
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,757 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x664a…fc5fbacked Nongshim RedForce63c5,070$3,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,194.8851744.7%231 W · 286 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Nongshim RedForce70c3,284$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,283.4726650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Gentle Mates41c1,940$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.8835457.3%203 W · 151 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Nongshim RedForce44c1,311$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.751,61945.1%730 W · 889 L-25.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Gentle Mates40c1,237$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.7340944.3%181 W · 228 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed Gentle Mates40c1,218$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.798347%39 W · 44 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Gentle Mates42c1,172$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.416442.2%27 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Gentle Mates45c1,130$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.7919648.5%95 W · 101 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d3…586bbacked Nongshim RedForce51c1,109$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.616250%31 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Nongshim RedForce71c1,101$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.41757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Nongshim RedForce45c1,101$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.581,28432.1%412 W · 872 L-67.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed Gentle Mates78c1,041$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.079838.8%38 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe187…a69cbacked Nongshim RedForce60c1,038$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.553860.5%23 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Gentle Mates36c1,035$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.613432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Nongshim RedForce60c1,009$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.4486747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked Nongshim RedForce60c930.69$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.676636.4%24 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed Gentle Mates34c900.22$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.1517250.6%87 W · 85 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Gentle Mates36c886.31$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.9893848%450 W · 488 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb379…0d76backed Gentle Mates30c824.52$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.523132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf0…696fbacked Nongshim RedForce76c741.22$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1056…3c9dbacked Nongshim RedForce51c696.07$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.491952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Gentle Mates31c669.99$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.997252.8%38 W · 34 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85a9…4e21backed Nongshim RedForce60c667.5$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004755.3%26 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x257c…a408backed Nongshim RedForce61c654.48$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003941%16 W · 23 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-36.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe544…c7afbacked Nongshim RedForce67c645.46$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.343644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe767…9107backed Gentle Mates45c609.8$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.396755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Gentle Mates35c605.17$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.5814850.7%75 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Nongshim RedForce61c537.16$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.9878862.8%495 W · 293 L+56.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Gentle Mates40c537.16$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.982352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Gentle Mates31c532.33$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.441,31843.9%578 W · 740 L-44.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f16…284ebacked Nongshim RedForce59c509.18$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003865.8%25 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Gentle Mates38c509.13$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.482369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Gentle Mates36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32042134.9%147 W · 274 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Nongshim RedForce63c494.96$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.6625836.8%95 W · 163 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xae3f…defebacked Gentle Mates50c490.18$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.093174.2%23 W · 8 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6bb…c0aabacked Nongshim RedForce65c400$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Gentle Mates55c389$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.491,00145.9%459 W · 542 L-28.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Nongshim RedForce54c369.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Nongshim RedForce64c359.38$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23063056.3%355 W · 275 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd676…104cbacked Gentle Mates40c349.99$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.83661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b4…aa7cbacked Gentle Mates32c344.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.591553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked Gentle Mates32c318.71$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6710628.3%30 W · 76 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed Nongshim RedForce60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Nongshim RedForce48c292.99$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5582435%288 W · 536 L-61.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Gentle Mates42c291.93$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.9779044.3%350 W · 440 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf828…00a5backed Nongshim RedForce67c289.83$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.842733.3%9 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbd22…e84abacked Gentle Mates52c285.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.941275%9 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+45.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x497e…2dc2backed Nongshim RedForce68c284.57$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.21875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick72cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Gentle Mates46c284.07$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.6433838.5%130 W · 208 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed Gentle Mates43c277.2$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.214443.1%62 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Gentle Mates45c274.73$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.2970943.6%309 W · 400 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Nongshim RedForce66c227.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503262.5%20 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick72cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Gentle Mates47c222.31$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1523644.5%105 W · 131 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Nongshim RedForce65c222.19$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8347446.8%222 W · 252 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Nongshim RedForce54c221.32$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4268949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Gentle Mates29c218.48$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.1266638%253 W · 413 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Gentle Mates36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12890244.3%400 W · 502 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nongshim RedForce62c189.42$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.031,74846.2%808 W · 940 L-2.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Nongshim RedForce59c176.4$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1654041.9%226 W · 314 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Nongshim RedForce50c175.49$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888848.9%43 W · 45 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Gentle Mates32c173.38$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.7660822.9%139 W · 469 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Gentle Mates37c153.83$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5485338%324 W · 529 L-52.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Nongshim RedForce21c141.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.61,61437.5%605 W · 1,009 L-75.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Nongshim RedForce64c140$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.622455.4%124 W · 100 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Gentle Mates37c138$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9421153.6%113 W · 98 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8cc…661ebacked Gentle Mates33c128.38$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.385660.7%34 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Gentle Mates34c128.25$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1422539.1%88 W · 137 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6505…1feebacked Gentle Mates43c117.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.558654.7%47 W · 39 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Gentle Mates29c116.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.68646.5%40 W · 46 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Gentle Mates36c112.38$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4991833%303 W · 615 L-91.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Gentle Mates37c111$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.935444.4%24 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Gentle Mates27c110.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.410842.6%46 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c0…6fa5backed Gentle Mates49c103.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3537…3b51backed Nongshim RedForce72c100.97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.458444%37 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Nongshim RedForce71c97.92$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7035155%193 W · 158 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a1…f88bbacked Gentle Mates45c88.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.528936%32 W · 57 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7643…fb95backed Gentle Mates36c88$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.321163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd7…f2c8backed Gentle Mates29c87.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Gentle Mates28c87.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4923836.1%86 W · 152 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6be…0968backed Gentle Mates36c83.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.336033.3%20 W · 40 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed35…bd18backed Nongshim RedForce61c82.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7415…b585backed Gentle Mates37c81.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.233129%9 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89ab…14e7backed Gentle Mates37c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.81850%9 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xceb1…f700backed Nongshim RedForce67c77.69$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.11060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Gentle Mates39c75.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1555637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Gentle Mates22c74.97$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4921641.7%90 W · 126 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe01f…ab4abacked Nongshim RedForce62c70.97$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4425444.9%114 W · 140 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Gentle Mates36c64.75$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1652149.7%259 W · 262 L-1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d0…566ebacked Gentle Mates33c63.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.646643.9%29 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8e7…31f3backed Nongshim RedForce59c60.53$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+77.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0181…9b5fbacked Gentle Mates53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.227850%139 W · 139 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Gentle Mates31c59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5597445.1%439 W · 535 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa78e…7cbcbacked Gentle Mates26c57.69$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6911242.9%48 W · 64 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…36b8backed Gentle Mates44c57.04$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.027850%39 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Gentle Mates39c56.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6542140.4%170 W · 251 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ac…c9f4backed Nongshim RedForce72c56.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.657254.2%39 W · 33 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Gentle Mates37c51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.135032%16 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60f…1490backed Nongshim RedForce59c50.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedab…8926backed Nongshim RedForce34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.911258%65 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked Nongshim RedForce58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2934647.7%165 W · 181 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.