Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70affb696c5c6964c6d7e0d589399368052f547c6b2ef811d6511eb71dfb1a5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 78c | 2,099$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.63 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 3c | 804.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 4c | 463.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 419.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 364.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 358.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 16c | 340.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 46c | 317.13$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.13 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 4c | 294.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 54c | 168.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.53 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 13c | 153.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 73c | 150.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 42c | 141.34$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 77c | 122$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 11c | 120.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 119.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 11c | 110.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 109.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 54c | 107.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 15c | 105.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 102.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 79c | 96.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 13c | 96.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 52c | 92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 88.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 85.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 79.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 78.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…aa8dbacked Yes | 74c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 50c | 69.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…b896backed No | 23c | 59.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 56c | 59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 26c | 57.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 50.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 55c | 50.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 46.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 30c | 45.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 44.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…f521backed Yes | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 38.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 54c | 36.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…17a4backed Yes | 55c | 36.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 32c | 35.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…6468backed Yes | 43c | 34.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 39c | 30.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…8b3abacked No | 55c | 27.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 26.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 20.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 61c | 17.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.