TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Cincinnati Open: Shuai Zhang vs Ann Li

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ann Liof Shuai Zhang, Ann Li
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,532
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,532 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Shuai Zhang27c31,398$8,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,369.98,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8546…35b8backed Ann Li75c29,771$22,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,353.6420860.6%126 W · 82 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Shuai Zhang41c11,000$4,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,508.231,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Shuai Zhang25c10,540$2,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,642.1611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Ann Li74c10,500$7,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,689.9953644.8%240 W · 296 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ann Li79c9,068$7,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.358,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Ann Li67c8,310$5,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.464,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa77…15a5backed Ann Li63c7,964$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,963.6534857.2%199 W · 149 L+1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Shuai Zhang40c5,055$2,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,040.666,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Ann Li59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6401,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb21…b09cbacked Ann Li75c3,738$2,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.582259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Shuai Zhang36c3,644$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.695655.4%31 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Shuai Zhang41c3,322$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360.3317247.7%82 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Ann Li58c3,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26037738.2%144 W · 233 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Ann Li62c2,983$1,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.154,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Ann Li61c2,366$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.128,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Ann Li66c2,273$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.7344754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Shuai Zhang41c2,177$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x568d…9a05backed Shuai Zhang35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Shuai Zhang41c1,707$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.991,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed Ann Li59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.9260158.6%352 W · 249 L+2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Ann Li62c1,570$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.8110249%50 W · 52 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e1…5ec9backed Shuai Zhang9c1,500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13544018.9%83 W · 357 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Ann Li64c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5403,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Shuai Zhang20c1,254$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.521,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Shuai Zhang16c1,094$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17571725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Ann Li59c1,050$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.52,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed Ann Li80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20027252.9%144 W · 128 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Ann Li67c988.54$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.314,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc627…47b2backed Ann Li63c956.83$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.8338557.1%220 W · 165 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f71…b2e4backed Shuai Zhang22c943.98$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.6822662.8%142 W · 84 L+15.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed Ann Li77c912.33$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.638464.3%54 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Ann Li62c854.76$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32436946.9%173 W · 196 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ac…1ce0backed Ann Li59c847.46$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.4612467.7%84 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2285…2aeabacked Ann Li75c789.39$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.539461.7%58 W · 36 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Shuai Zhang41c731.7$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb904…3ef8backed Ann Li68c700$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2243161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Ann Li61c669.99$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.9627744.4%123 W · 154 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Ann Li59c666$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.0638550.4%194 W · 191 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Shuai Zhang41c650$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.535938.2%137 W · 222 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…a8e0backed Ann Li77c649.35$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.3525158.6%147 W · 104 L+17.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Shuai Zhang43c641.27$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.7595050.1%476 W · 474 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9807…157bbacked Shuai Zhang35c601.06$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.4633438.6%129 W · 205 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Ann Li71c569.59$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.71,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Shuai Zhang34c556$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.0429649.7%147 W · 149 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Ann Li72c530.05$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.582,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Ann Li77c499.99$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11529654.4%161 W · 135 L+0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Shuai Zhang23c488.38$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.332,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed Shuai Zhang42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010954.1%59 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed Ann Li64c460.14$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.7425546.7%119 W · 136 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Ann Li58c439.2$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.461,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb624…3d80backed Shuai Zhang41c426.83$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17514439.6%57 W · 87 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Ann Li78c418$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9626355.1%145 W · 118 L+36.9wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+25.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Ann Li79c414.8$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.272,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Shuai Zhang40c402.92$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.172,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Ann Li77c389$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.471,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42d6…01ccbacked Ann Li65c384.62$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.621,07762.8%676 W · 401 L-27.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92d6…4bfbbacked Shuai Zhang19c355.53$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.74450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+66.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93cb…3485backed Ann Li77c355$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6530639.9%122 W · 184 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Shuai Zhang37c353$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8633235.2%117 W · 215 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Shuai Zhang37c351.39$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.681,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Ann Li72c342.82$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.319,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Shuai Zhang16c333$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2819131.4%60 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Ann Li58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12652847%248 W · 280 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Shuai Zhang30c298.56$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Shuai Zhang34c282.35$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961,02341.3%422 W · 601 L-24.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Shuai Zhang44c268.75$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.0192237.4%345 W · 577 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Shuai Zhang38c266.66$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.331,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Ann Li76c258.88$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.271,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Ann Li60c250.67$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6791754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed Ann Li77c241.06$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4452739.3%207 W · 320 L+37.6wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabe3…c19abacked Ann Li59c240$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.44742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xacab…28bcbacked Ann Li63c239.69$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.645855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d9…84afbacked Ann Li62c220.99$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9830648.4%148 W · 158 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Ann Li80c195$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2733062.7%207 W · 123 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Ann Li62c186.89$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.619537.4%73 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x113b…84c9backed Ann Li65c184.62$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.623080%24 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4eb…999abacked Shuai Zhang23c177.23$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.533857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…df71backed Ann Li59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4942934.7%149 W · 280 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Ann Li59c169.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4574961.8%463 W · 286 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabdd…a6d0backed Ann Li66c166.67$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.672470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe055…3157backed Ann Li59c152.73$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7310956%61 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Ann Li61c144.17$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.761,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Shuai Zhang21c139.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.191266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+117.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Shuai Zhang41c138$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5872638.8%282 W · 444 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Shuai Zhang33c137.85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.493,42439.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L-12.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Ann Li60c136.61$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.647548%36 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3404…3a93backed Ann Li77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8716045.6%73 W · 87 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbcc…459fbacked Ann Li80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d7…2485backed Ann Li75c122.8$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8410655.7%59 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Shuai Zhang22c121.63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.764953.1%26 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Ann Li64c120.69$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.832,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8468…3860backed Shuai Zhang15c116.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.524231%75 W · 167 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f1…28d4backed Ann Li78c113.64$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254266.7%28 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Shuai Zhang33c111.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.782,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Shuai Zhang14c105.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8219057.9%110 W · 80 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Ann Li75c101$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.311,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64e8…b506backed Ann Li60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4010446.2%48 W · 56 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x834d…0c31backed Shuai Zhang19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Ann Li59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.