MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x718bbec7a26ee5d6c4db396558085f36c7c6f55868f843751f3a48f9360c843b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 46c | 94,842$43,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,627.1 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab3…64afbacked Under | 54c | 32,609$17,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,000.14 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 54c | 16,025$8,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,371.3 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8853…c058backed Under | 54c | 15,000$8,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,900 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Under | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 4,506$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 57c | 4,090$2,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.52 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 55c | 3,017$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.06 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 55c | 2,992$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.44 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 43c | 2,644$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.8 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 54c | 2,607$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.13 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 2,559$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.34 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 75c | 2,485$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.84 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 1,886$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.02 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 54c | 1,003$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.38 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 55c | 919$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.18 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 56c | 744.98$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.32 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 647.92$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.63 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Over | 43c | 524.09$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.98 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 472.25$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.51 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 409.95$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.38 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 405$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 47c | 354.41$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.57 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 53c | 343.83$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.6 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 55c | 300$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 44c | 253.75$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 58c | 239.66$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 46c | 213$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Under | 54c | 205$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…e4e7backed Under | 54c | 159.22$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 57c | 99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 27c | 95.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 55c | 94.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 57c | 91.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 56c | 89.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over | 44c | 79.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 56c | 77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 46c | 72.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 46c | 72.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 54c | 67.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 56c | 52.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…4a0abacked Over | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9707…6fbdbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 54c | 36.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…be06backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…89f9backed Under | 54c | 36.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Over | 44c | 31.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 47c | 31.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 56c | 28.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Under | 54c | 21.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.