TailMyPicks
Market

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$363,467
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$444,390

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $363,467 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbde3…4a49backed BNK FEARX28c41,979$11,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,892.0623447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed BNK FEARX23c39,583$9,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,160.161,01647%478 W · 538 L+21.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed BNK FEARX32c16,396$5,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,300.717949.2%88 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Gen.G69c11,064$7,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,395.385046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d82…1b86backed BNK FEARX2c11,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260593.4%2 W · 57 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd8…a879backed Gen.G77c10,919$8,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.121028.1%59 W · 151 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Gen.G69c9,994$6,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.1995541.7%398 W · 557 L-31.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Gen.G69c9,899$6,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,021.1476642%322 W · 444 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Gen.G71c9,841$7,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,828.541,60342.4%679 W · 924 L-18.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb66a…800ebacked BNK FEARX23c9,800$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2546549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked BNK FEARX19c8,605$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.0390348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Gen.G66c7,609$5,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,601.2739246.4%182 W · 210 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Gen.G70c7,264$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.352,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Gen.G68c6,918$4,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.961,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Gen.G71c6,701$4,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.1185942.7%367 W · 492 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Gen.G73c6,296$4,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.351,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked BNK FEARX20c6,226$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.231,26737.7%478 W · 789 L+35.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7829…cfd3backed BNK FEARX23c5,540$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.0728734.1%98 W · 189 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed BNK FEARX22c5,000$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09044047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Gen.G78c4,934$3,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.4848548.7%236 W · 249 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Gen.G79c4,756$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.4959952.8%316 W · 283 L-3.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Gen.G76c4,066$3,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.2125952.9%137 W · 122 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Gen.G80c3,764$3,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.862,01258.1%1,168 W · 844 L+84.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Gen.G78c3,734$2,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.4396948.6%471 W · 498 L+12.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Gen.G79c3,695$2,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.467250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Gen.G75c3,605$2,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.4773237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Gen.G65c3,494$2,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.912,83641.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L-12.9wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb646…c9debacked BNK FEARX3c3,300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992020%4 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7097…e1debacked Gen.G79c3,041$2,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.769450%47 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed BNK FEARX20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,22135.9%438 W · 783 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Gen.G78c3,000$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.9596350.2%483 W · 480 L+1.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked BNK FEARX17c2,966$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.51,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcad2…c9e4backed Gen.G78c2,823$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.4927248.9%133 W · 139 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked BNK FEARX21c2,774$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.417847.4%37 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed BNK FEARX31c2,554$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.281,63540.2%657 W · 978 L+48.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25a9…7076backed BNK FEARX24c2,340$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.8416844.6%75 W · 93 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed BNK FEARX22c2,148$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.0640232.8%132 W · 270 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Gen.G79c2,099$1,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.511,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed BNK FEARX35c2,039$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.6576953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Gen.G78c1,974$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.1986136.2%312 W · 549 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed BNK FEARX21c1,688$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.071,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf859…a183backed BNK FEARX33c1,674$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.051,21352.3%635 W · 578 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed BNK FEARX1c1,671$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9945618.9%86 W · 370 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed Gen.G68c1,579$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.2167276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8976…7367backed Gen.G79c1,564$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.769533.7%32 W · 63 L-9.7wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf33c…4c38backed BNK FEARX31c1,476$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.9824065%156 W · 84 L+24.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked BNK FEARX10c1,413$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.421,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed BNK FEARX22c1,283$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.0221746.5%101 W · 116 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf21d…922bbacked Gen.G77c1,281$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.5835457.9%205 W · 149 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c15…2a2dbacked BNK FEARX19c1,012$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6212458.1%72 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed BNK FEARX19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Gen.G77c999.99$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23030945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd307…f4d1backed Gen.G78c999.98$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03bc…ad27backed Gen.G80c989.32$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.9816761.1%102 W · 65 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked BNK FEARX26c985.97$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.3544751%228 W · 219 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked BNK FEARX44c966.26$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.9679653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed BNK FEARX32c959.06$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.6639447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6b…bc2abacked Gen.G77c914.57$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.3528165.5%184 W · 97 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x395f…dcacbacked BNK FEARX33c872.55$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.9426245.8%120 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Gen.G80c823.97$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.791,00554%543 W · 462 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3081…c666backed Gen.G74c787.58$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.65139.2%20 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed BNK FEARX34c772.09$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.7435546.8%166 W · 189 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b17…fdbfbacked Gen.G79c759.44$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4818359.6%109 W · 74 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed BNK FEARX12c749.56$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6613030.8%40 W · 90 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed BNK FEARX15c741.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2615632.7%51 W · 105 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Gen.G56c727.99$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.762,33039.4%919 W · 1,411 L-83.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9cb…bdcdbacked Gen.G77c723.94$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.8620649%101 W · 105 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Gen.G73c712.1$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.9369539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25a2…3b2fbacked BNK FEARX23c622.04$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.075922%13 W · 46 L-9.9wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-16.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Gen.G80c621.22$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.241,31055.8%731 W · 579 L+43.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed BNK FEARX11c601.64$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1715148.3%73 W · 78 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked Gen.G79c600$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12696347.7%459 W · 504 L+2.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed BNK FEARX2c593.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.887889.8%77 W · 711 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7689…af2abacked BNK FEARX10c591.45$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1517535.4%62 W · 113 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked BNK FEARX21c585.16$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6514032.1%45 W · 95 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x844c…2998backed Gen.G65c582$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.72832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d7…406dbacked Gen.G77c578.65$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.0718357.9%106 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked BNK FEARX20c574.41$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.881,61148.4%780 W · 831 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed BNK FEARX24c565.85$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.591,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Gen.G79c543.07$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.0445041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked BNK FEARX18c537.49$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.22,70735.9%972 W · 1,735 L-152.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0960…5adcbacked BNK FEARX36c535.19$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.3112642.1%53 W · 73 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Gen.G78c530.76$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.7723754%128 W · 109 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11ce…b5a0backed BNK FEARX19c529.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.78624.4%21 W · 65 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed BNK FEARX16c522.91$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.381,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed BNK FEARX26c509.04$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.721,26542.8%541 W · 724 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98d…c479backed BNK FEARX20c509$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.459537.9%36 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed BNK FEARX22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101,47429%427 W · 1,047 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed BNK FEARX20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10068443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Gen.G79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed BNK FEARX21c499.97$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.993,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b89…fdf9backed Gen.G79c499.95$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.9952750.9%268 W · 259 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa376…7913backed BNK FEARX5c471.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.589230.4%28 W · 64 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gen.G66c451.17$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.182,36440.7%963 W · 1,401 L-57.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3026…80fbbacked BNK FEARX24c450.18$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.532944.8%13 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed BNK FEARX32c449.63$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8879151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe6d…9d6abacked Gen.G69c426.75$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.03650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked BNK FEARX32c421.55$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.938950.9%198 W · 191 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed BNK FEARX27c413.01$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9976639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Gen.G77c411.13$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5618742.8%80 W · 107 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.