TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$537,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$653,571

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $537,577 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe015…6ffdbacked BNK FEARX15c35,122$5,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,158.3296048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed BNK FEARX14c21,722$3,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,041.0738235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d82…1b86backed BNK FEARX3c17,959$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.1593.4%2 W · 57 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47f8…6699backed BNK FEARX14c14,625$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.51833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked BNK FEARX10c14,100$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.3224741.3%102 W · 145 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed BNK FEARX5c12,591$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.5438624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked BNK FEARX12c12,206$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.621330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bd8…a879backed BNK FEARX7c11,768$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.9521028.1%59 W · 151 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed BNK FEARX13c11,111$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.422030%6 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed BNK FEARX14c10,966$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.231,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked BNK FEARX15c9,490$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.51,48250%741 W · 741 L+65.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed BNK FEARX12c8,250$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.981,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7829…cfd3backed BNK FEARX14c7,900$1,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.0628734.1%98 W · 189 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb66a…800ebacked BNK FEARX13c7,613$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.746549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked BNK FEARX19c6,191$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.8859558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed BNK FEARX14c5,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.991,20335.7%430 W · 773 L+6.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4084…357abacked BNK FEARX17c4,855$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed BNK FEARX6c4,808$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.4923447.9%112 W · 122 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x285d…37c3backed BNK FEARX16c4,286$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.83517.1%6 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed BNK FEARX14c4,017$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.3535634.8%124 W · 232 L-19.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked BNK FEARX10c3,913$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.122,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9446…aecabacked BNK FEARX11c3,615$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.81353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed BNK FEARX16c3,463$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.0248742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0037…be55backed BNK FEARX14c3,387$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.2850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+274.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed BNK FEARX15c3,248$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.268336.1%30 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed BNK FEARX14c3,202$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.3143442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed BNK FEARX13c2,953$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.9520035%70 W · 130 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed BNK FEARX15c2,838$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.6310521%22 W · 83 L-10.5wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-2.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed BNK FEARX10c2,687$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.6767931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed BNK FEARX15c2,600$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.0444335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked BNK FEARX17c2,500$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.051540%6 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x627e…f59fbacked BNK FEARX16c2,236$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.842623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BNK FEARX15c2,222$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.332,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed BNK FEARX11c2,192$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.4813030.8%40 W · 90 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeca9…f74dbacked BNK FEARX17c2,188$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.661136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9386…fdfebacked BNK FEARX15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003754.1%20 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed BNK FEARX8c1,817$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0878043.1%336 W · 444 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked BNK FEARX13c1,731$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.253139.9%212 W · 319 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e17…2301backed BNK FEARX15c1,499$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.8513121.4%28 W · 103 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3445…d229backed BNK FEARX5c1,437$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.855833.6%21 W · 562 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+178.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed BNK FEARX14c1,363$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.8135243.2%152 W · 200 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed BNK FEARX13c1,200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15648035.4%170 W · 310 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf7…e64cbacked BNK FEARX14c1,045$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.2324227.7%67 W · 175 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed BNK FEARX15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030042.7%128 W · 172 L-1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6463…1f5cbacked BNK FEARX6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017143.3%74 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed BNK FEARX4c980.85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2338837.4%145 W · 243 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed BNK FEARX15c980.63$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.119042.1%80 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed BNK FEARX4c879.02$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.341,05323.4%246 W · 807 L-76.9wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed BNK FEARX15c835.34$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8842735.4%151 W · 276 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed BNK FEARX8c818.6$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.546436.4%169 W · 295 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa718…baf1backed BNK FEARX16c693.98$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.048542.4%36 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed BNK FEARX15c632.67$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.947953.2%255 W · 224 L-26.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5055…b09bbacked BNK FEARX6c629.07$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7413735%48 W · 89 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed BNK FEARX16c612.16$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9515148.3%73 W · 78 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47b7…7d88backed BNK FEARX17c570.12$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.926550.8%33 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c41…42ebbacked BNK FEARX12c515.7$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.212147.1%57 W · 64 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x069b…e8afbacked BNK FEARX15c506.13$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.926048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7809…64ccbacked BNK FEARX15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7517431%54 W · 120 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed BNK FEARX15c499.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7547047.4%223 W · 247 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe900…1d32backed BNK FEARX12c489.62$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8480%0 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3107…a26fbacked BNK FEARX15c488.74$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.317025.7%18 W · 52 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bb6…7319backed BNK FEARX6c471.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.313641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fbb…b5f9backed BNK FEARX4c456.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.582429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed BNK FEARX15c442.87$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.431,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8de…ed08backed BNK FEARX10c413.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6412220.5%25 W · 97 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6eb…9c8cbacked BNK FEARX15c400.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.02616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed BNK FEARX13c399.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210533.3%35 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BNK FEARX8c380.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.922,90338.5%1,119 W · 1,784 L-117.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked BNK FEARX3c379.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.747028.6%20 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x954d…ed85backed BNK FEARX6c377.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…a754backed BNK FEARX13c373.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3435323.2%82 W · 271 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed BNK FEARX12c368.36$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2648747%229 W · 258 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b45…ac9fbacked BNK FEARX12c362.48$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.842250%211 W · 211 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed BNK FEARX8c350$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.317325.4%44 W · 129 L-19.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-54.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed BNK FEARX12c334.3$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2936647.3%173 W · 193 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed BNK FEARX15c325.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8699338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d8…012abacked BNK FEARX15c316.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4516236.4%59 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed BNK FEARX13c306.16$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8133552.8%177 W · 158 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x872c…40e0backed BNK FEARX15c299.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+2.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed BNK FEARX15c284.7$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.711,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b52…354ebacked BNK FEARX11c280.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.625425.9%14 W · 40 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-56.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7253…0558backed BNK FEARX17c279.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5118236.8%67 W · 115 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ff…4f66backed BNK FEARX10c272.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.14580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+152.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed BNK FEARX15c244.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.681,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20b2…f114backed BNK FEARX5c242.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1127535.3%97 W · 178 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed BNK FEARX15c237.07$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5637641.8%157 W · 219 L-18.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd62d…4c22backed BNK FEARX15c226.45$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86bb…54ebbacked BNK FEARX17c220$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce9…e3e2backed BNK FEARX16c209.61$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.094240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed BNK FEARX16c208.57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.371,57648.4%763 W · 813 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x791f…060ebacked BNK FEARX8c208.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1526224.8%65 W · 197 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed BNK FEARX10c208.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4544738%170 W · 277 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked BNK FEARX15c195.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.321,24134.7%431 W · 810 L-2.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc666…8d00backed BNK FEARX8c194.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1342251.7%218 W · 204 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x534b…983fbacked BNK FEARX15c189.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4742835%150 W · 278 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd711…749cbacked BNK FEARX15c189.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4726049.2%128 W · 132 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e1c…b3abbacked BNK FEARX15c162.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.433933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xed6c…d0bbbacked BNK FEARX9c154.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1913322.6%30 W · 103 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8ca…b702backed BNK FEARX7c146$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.065414.8%8 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+29.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed BNK FEARX15c140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.841544.6%185 W · 230 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.