TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x627e…f59f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Other European Leagues, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Other European Leagues at 52 out of 100; worst Serie A at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT2623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-Inbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$163.84
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.59
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked GIANTX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.23
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked GIANTX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.33
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.52
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffsbacked DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+184.4%+$168.58
LoL: Team Heretics vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.3
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.13
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.32
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.26
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Seasonbacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+111%+$46.81
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2backed Gen.G Global Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$806Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$805.91
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Seasonbacked Fluxo W7M · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+525%+$311.89
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$205
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Solary (BO1) - LFL Regular Seasonbacked Karmine Corp Blue · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.86
LoL: ZYB Esport vs Galions (BO1) - LFL Regular Seasonbacked ZYB Esport · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffsbacked FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$127.09
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2backed HANJIN BRION Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.33
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.1
LoL: Team Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Group Stagebacked FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,462Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,462.45
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$357.84
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$4,648Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,647.97
LoL: Colossal Gaming vs TITANS (BO1) - LIT Regular Seasonbacked TITANS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$263.65
LoL: HMBLE vs Colossal Gaming (BO1) - LIT Regular Seasonbacked Colossal Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.81
LoL: RED Academy vs INTZ e-Sports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Seasonbacked INTZ e-Sports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$204.5
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT2035%7 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sabres vs. Bruinsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$105.92
Hurricanes vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$363.88
Maple Leafs vs. Senatorsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.44
Stars vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.62
Ducks vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$65.34
Stars vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.71
Wild vs. Bluesbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.32
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.32
Rangers vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$85.32
Senators vs. Devilsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.12
Bruins vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$102.08
Canadiens vs. Islandersbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$78.91
Penguins vs. Capitalsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.8
Panthers vs. Maple Leafsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$337.56
Blues vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.79
Hurricanes vs. Utahbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$722Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$847.26
Oilers vs. Kingsbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.5
Maple Leafs vs. Islandersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$704Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$703.83
Panthers vs. Senatorsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$745Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$744.6
Oilers vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$736Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$736
All 20 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,687Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,687.31
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$418.83
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$584Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+203%+$1,185.23
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$478Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$747.61
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$370.48
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$494Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$493.57
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$482
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.32
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$362Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$284.55
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$968Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+207.6%+$2,010.47
All 10 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-60.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$484Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$1,184.28
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$510.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.62
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,610Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,610.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-04-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$151.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$275.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Rocketsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,176Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,176.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,217Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,216.93
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.