TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof KT Rolster, Gen.G
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,516,687
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,367,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,516,687 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 490 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1341…0853backed Gen.G76c343,574$261,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,492.41,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x535c…96babacked KT Rolster24c290,000$69,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,6001330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…0752backed KT Rolster18c59,978$11,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,013.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Gen.G78c58,729$45,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,740.2614448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed KT Rolster18c52,306$9,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,346.0738235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac9d…1687backed KT Rolster20c50,068$10,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,052.735431.5%17 W · 37 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed KT Rolster18c45,786$8,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,293.5725143.4%109 W · 142 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed KT Rolster16c40,410$6,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,565.6217133.9%58 W · 113 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x369f…abb5backed KT Rolster22c38,308$8,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,332.633956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked KT Rolster20c25,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0009750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x611f…b58fbacked KT Rolster24c24,111$5,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,786.641822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-61.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed KT Rolster21c23,767$4,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,988.7735634.8%124 W · 232 L-19.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked KT Rolster18c20,600$3,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,776.811,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed KT Rolster20c20,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00054353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked Gen.G80c19,741$15,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,033.0759558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked KT Rolster17c18,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,06049541.6%206 W · 289 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d0…42b1backed KT Rolster20c16,358$3,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,271.655942.4%25 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61d…c9c9backed KT Rolster18c16,137$2,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,911.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed KT Rolster17c15,000$2,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,576.7115148.3%73 W · 78 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc59e…a3febacked KT Rolster16c14,650$2,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,371.558150.6%41 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff93…1239backed KT Rolster24c14,013$3,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,363.122040%8 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x34a5…9450backed KT Rolster18c13,572$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50017729.9%53 W · 124 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed KT Rolster16c12,461$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.691,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed KT Rolster17c12,294$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.9615033.3%50 W · 100 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+33.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked KT Rolster21c11,849$2,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,488.2957246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed KT Rolster21c10,793$2,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,268.3154429.6%161 W · 383 L-35.2wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Gen.G78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20067552.4%354 W · 321 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09dd…7e13backed KT Rolster18c10,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8001735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed KT Rolster11c9,268$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01619122.5%43 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed Gen.G77c8,600$6,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,97859450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66ea…6791backed KT Rolster17c7,137$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22922644.2%100 W · 126 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed KT Rolster19c6,487$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.9514346.9%67 W · 76 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked KT Rolster18c6,151$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.3848844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Gen.G78c6,000$4,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3209853.1%52 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed KT Rolster19c5,750$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.498336.1%30 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b5…c0aebacked KT Rolster17c5,500$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9307042.9%30 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed KT Rolster16c5,341$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.5548742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed KT Rolster18c5,340$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.522,22237.4%832 W · 1,390 L-30.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed KT Rolster10c5,277$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.7419239.1%75 W · 117 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed KT Rolster18c5,106$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.621440.2%86 W · 128 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked KT Rolster20c4,810$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.9330321.8%66 W · 237 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed KT Rolster16c4,600$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.0642735.4%151 W · 276 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3f9…e901backed Gen.G79c4,571$3,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.831040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-47.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed KT Rolster24c4,348$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.2352543.8%230 W · 295 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd273…9a33backed KT Rolster23c4,170$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.12634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed KT Rolster18c4,046$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.91,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f8b…e8e7backed KT Rolster23c4,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61a…5943backed KT Rolster7c4,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28013418.7%25 W · 109 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed KT Rolster19c4,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked KT Rolster18c3,994$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70075630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed KT Rolster18c3,472$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.0185746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed KT Rolster20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60048440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b2…a017backed KT Rolster24c3,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71047047.4%223 W · 247 L+24.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed KT Rolster17c2,860$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.141,30138.6%502 W · 799 L-65.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed KT Rolster15c2,823$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.753531.4%11 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed KT Rolster18c2,819$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.751,58743.8%695 W · 892 L-73.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed KT Rolster19c2,727$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.3511860.2%71 W · 47 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+44.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed KT Rolster20c2,600$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52024147.3%114 W · 127 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked KT Rolster19c2,565$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.6853139.9%212 W · 319 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a12…e633backed KT Rolster18c2,527$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.9523041.7%96 W · 134 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed KT Rolster20c2,520$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50449847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked KT Rolster18c2,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4505429.6%16 W · 38 L-7.7wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xde0a…f102backed KT Rolster19c2,500$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4756936.2%25 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked KT Rolster22c2,464$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.2238850.8%197 W · 191 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Gen.G75c2,442$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.4559554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ab…3d8bbacked KT Rolster18c2,387$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.085530.9%17 W · 38 L-7.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-36.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0a91…0776backed KT Rolster24c2,310$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.372231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-39.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x616f…e14cbacked KT Rolster21c2,272$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.711851.7%61 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-11.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa40…9e37backed KT Rolster22c2,268$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.7810231.4%32 W · 70 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2759…68f5backed KT Rolster11c2,247$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcf…056bbacked KT Rolster23c2,228$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.43644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed KT Rolster22c2,212$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.479848%47 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed KT Rolster20c2,211$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.113130.5%40 W · 91 L-13.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Gen.G77c2,178$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.921,20643.5%525 W · 681 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed KT Rolster17c2,175$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.2856432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea3…fe61backed KT Rolster13c2,063$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.574639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed KT Rolster19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38021154.5%115 W · 96 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed KT Rolster20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40044335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd25…22e6backed KT Rolster20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-74.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fc5…e3b9backed Gen.G78c1,923$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.0815659.6%93 W · 63 L-13.1wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2db…a60dbacked KT Rolster23c1,903$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.644332.6%14 W · 29 L-6.3wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-39.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd0f8…6b50backed KT Rolster25c1,840$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46812931.8%41 W · 88 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88db…54a4backed KT Rolster18c1,840$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32610046%46 W · 54 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb66…c8dfbacked KT Rolster21c1,826$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.526248.4%30 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed KT Rolster17c1,825$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.2564243%276 W · 366 L-27.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked KT Rolster23c1,823$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.137754.5%42 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed KT Rolster18c1,820$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.82,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed KT Rolster23c1,782$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9620036.5%73 W · 127 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaed5…981dbacked KT Rolster21c1,777$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.844245.9%203 W · 239 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e1c…b3abbacked KT Rolster19c1,764$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.853933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed KT Rolster18c1,759$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.781,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed KT Rolster11c1,750$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.542924.2%104 W · 325 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Gen.G78c1,750$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38528253.5%151 W · 131 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb835…2e51backed KT Rolster25c1,745$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.217140.8%29 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4de…3920backed KT Rolster24c1,723$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.531741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed KT Rolster20c1,687$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.5139447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed KT Rolster24c1,667$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc6…448ebacked KT Rolster17c1,655$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.327824.4%19 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9359…8b15backed KT Rolster16c1,609$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.187550.7%38 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4a9…4d64backed KT Rolster19c1,608$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.52728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.