Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73534944cc6f18e47854e085301dda093d725c551969f71c6d107f932f565266
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcffc…172bbacked Yes | 53c | 1,438$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 79c | 253.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 248.89$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.47 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 44c | 225.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 52c | 195.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 12c | 188.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd718…a03bbacked Yes | 62c | 160.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 9c | 155$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 57c | 152.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 28c | 132.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 59c | 130$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 72c | 103.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 51c | 102.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 29c | 94.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 87.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 54c | 79.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 70.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…6be9backed No | 18c | 70.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 44c | 58.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 51.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 34.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 74c | 29.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 77c | 26.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 48c | 24.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed No | 56c | 20.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 62c | 20.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 56c | 19.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 23?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.