Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73d9412f40187f82d06340ba52a2a1db4bceceb5513c6a7ca2ed673bdf262d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 1,234$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.65 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 489.09$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 470.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 467.69$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 323.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 311.37$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 308.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 49c | 303.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.06 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 268.52$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 257.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 249.64$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 226$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 217.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 52c | 205.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.45 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 192.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.01 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 159.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 153.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 12c | 147.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 145.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 49c | 143.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 138.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 124.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 121$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 115.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 112.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 47c | 107.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 52c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 49c | 104.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…8770backed No | 58c | 103.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 75c | 103.19$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 31c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 62.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 59.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 53c | 59.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 57.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 53c | 56.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 77c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 47c | 53.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 24c | 46.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed No | 52c | 40.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 44c | 40.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 68c | 34.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 49c | 33.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 70c | 27.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 48c | 25.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 48c | 25.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 48c | 25.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 48c | 24.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 47c | 24.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…4a4cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 72c | 14.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 72c | 14.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.