Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x742ee2e02d90755f5089a83f6c4e4a3a81daf0967589af893ad2792f5e6fc1d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 4,354$3,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.74 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Yes | 22c | 2,500$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.76 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 15c | 2,061$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.51 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 23c | 1,448$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.56 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,358$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.75 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 11c | 1,148$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 21c | 999.9$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 960.29$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.76 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 78c | 644.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.86 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 11c | 521$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…b730backed Yes | 24c | 499.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 11c | 487$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 11c | 468$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed No | 73c | 454.95$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.31 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 11c | 304$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 11c | 251$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 79c | 153.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 23c | 142.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 22c | 136.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Yes | 22c | 111$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…bc52backed Yes | 19c | 108.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 22c | 92.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda5…830dbacked Yes | 32c | 88.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 26c | 81.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 23c | 78.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…c3d4backed Yes | 26c | 77.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Yes | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 21c | 72.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…a46fbacked Yes | 14c | 69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7503…18f3backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bea…c4b2backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf922…48d9backed Yes | 31c | 63.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 21c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 60.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 18c | 58.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ff…82c2backed Yes | 22c | 57.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked Yes | 31c | 48.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 30c | 43.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 79c | 32.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae66…3d04backed Yes | 35c | 29.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 73c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 18.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…7876backed No | 80c | 15.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-02-25?Yes won
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-02-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.