F1 · resolved market
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7450d05618345e0103fade4dad30a7a2d88f85836db56b521230dfa5ad81eac7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 4c | 6,821$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.48 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,744$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…e723backed Yes | 5c | 5,722$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e74fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,012$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce6…121ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…a733backed Yes | 6c | 3,902$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 4c | 3,800$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.83 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,006$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed Yes | 8c | 2,328$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.34 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc79…7609backed Yes | 7c | 1,957$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked Yes | 7c | 1,875$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a45…cf97backed Yes | 7c | 1,576$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.64 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 5c | 1,526$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3844…7285backed Yes | 5c | 1,246$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…51ccbacked Yes | 4c | 1,143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 17c | 1,121$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.36 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 4c | 1,097$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 6c | 1,091$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…ab03backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 4c | 919.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 3c | 771.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…6b77backed Yes | 7c | 750$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b04…3a41backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8870…6578backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8573…6b6bbacked Yes | 14c | 418.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 411$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…0113backed Yes | 5c | 399.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…aef4backed Yes | 6c | 380$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes | 7c | 355.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 7c | 347.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…f54fbacked Yes | 17c | 339.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…0e19backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 21c | 275$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…3437backed Yes | 6c | 267.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…1e25backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…0b3fbacked Yes | 5c | 198.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…6012backed Yes | 16c | 190$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…29edbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Yes | 11c | 185$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…d409backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…7888backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb79…dc2abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…5a7cbacked Yes | 16c | 121.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773a…9f52backed Yes | 21c | 95.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…7ee2backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…0a6fbacked Yes | 14c | 80.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe92…d19abacked Yes | 26c | 76.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac11…5cbdbacked Yes | 16c | 70.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.