Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7486d9508f42fae20c39b32bd76b2acf002348cc6e71c060ff880012b50d3a0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof OG, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 38c | 16,592$6,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,254.51 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed OG | 50c | 11,475$5,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,772.75 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed OG | 55c | 10,334$5,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,609.53 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Heroic | 37c | 5,174$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.49 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Heroic | 48c | 3,392$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.26 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed OG | 72c | 3,225$2,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.67 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Heroic | 52c | 2,682$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.27 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed OG | 50c | 2,100$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.98 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed OG | 57c | 2,001$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.91 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe48…5895backed Heroic | 50c | 1,371$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.39 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Heroic | 59c | 1,153$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.02 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da2…8c2bbacked Heroic | 79c | 1,020$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.3 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed OG | 51c | 1,012$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.09 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Heroic | 56c | 900$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Heroic | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Heroic | 49c | 628.73$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.22 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 69c | 602.7$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.2 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Heroic | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked OG | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…0765backed Heroic | 67c | 460$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Heroic | 44c | 450$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.5 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Heroic | 47c | 418.4$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.65 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed OG | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed OG | 55c | 390.49$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.72 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed OG | 51c | 389.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.1 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed OG | 57c | 376.05$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed OG | 78c | 350.05$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic | 18c | 315.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…3d14backed OG | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed Heroic | 49c | 263.27$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked OG | 79c | 252.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed OG | 60c | 247$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Heroic | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…0338backed OG | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…5ad4backed Heroic | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Heroic | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed OG | 53c | 189.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked OG | 80c | 188.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 44c | 186.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Heroic | 22c | 182.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c86…cfc0backed Heroic | 49c | 155.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…56c0backed Heroic | 49c | 155.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked OG | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed OG | 34c | 146.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…5a9bbacked Heroic | 63c | 138.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…8ca1backed OG | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed OG | 29c | 120$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Heroic | 54c | 102.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed OG | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17f…19c5backed Heroic | 48c | 95.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…b94cbacked OG | 79c | 92.41$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173c…f3cdbacked Heroic | 50c | 86.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Heroic | 68c | 69.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked OG | 48c | 66.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…27ffbacked Heroic | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…c498backed Heroic | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed Heroic | 64c | 49.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…fbe0backed Heroic | 59c | 47.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 71cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Heroic | 46c | 41.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…21f0backed Heroic | 73c | 40.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Heroic | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked Heroic | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed OG | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…7a53backed Heroic | 54c | 35.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked OG | 75c | 24.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b62…e23ebacked OG | 54c | 24.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Heroic | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Heroic (BO3)OG won
- Dota 2: OG vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerOG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.