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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Heroic (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OGof OG, Heroic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,872 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Heroic39c15,545$6,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,109.942,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed OG50c13,111$6,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,555.56750.7%34 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Heroic37c12,008$4,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.3216050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eed…5a28backed Heroic45c7,627$3,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,441.24933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed OG54c7,439$4,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,400.519047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea61…cc32backed OG56c5,544$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,443.677549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Heroic44c4,026$1,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,774.4917950.3%90 W · 89 L+14.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic40c3,696$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.7589440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Heroic49c3,014$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.786647%31 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic45c2,625$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.821,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1fa…f3bebacked Heroic40c2,498$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.1313450.7%68 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heroic39c2,403$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.786949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Heroic44c2,386$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.9911557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked OG69c2,208$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.9512050.8%61 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Heroic43c2,100$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.9921350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed OG79c2,000$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.634468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc8f…092ebacked OG56c1,815$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.671968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed OG56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.718245.1%37 W · 45 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7769…48bdbacked Heroic44c1,650$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked OG75c1,557$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.058330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f7d…5769backed OG55c1,477$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.711844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked OG56c1,443$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.6511855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaa3…8133backed Heroic44c1,320$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed OG54c1,049$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.0780443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdab0…2fe9backed OG56c914.02$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.43348.5%16 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick62cpaid-21.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa969…fd89backed OG56c850$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb627…68b5backed Heroic50c802.63$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x981f…d3dabacked OG56c800$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Heroic26c749.84$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.636442.3%154 W · 210 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Heroic25c729.89$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.298411.9%10 W · 74 L-14.1wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-63.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe7a4…31e9backed OG56c600$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2642100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c8…f30abacked OG51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2942133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Heroic32c535.82$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17110141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0050…2eb8backed OG55c534.79$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.712646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked OG57c529.99$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.915653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd2…a1fdbacked OG56c504.5$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.983847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed OG55c488.95$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.9547660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x064a…9c2fbacked OG57c473.68$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.686352.4%33 W · 30 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed OG68c446$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.525930.5%18 W · 41 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Heroic22c445.49$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0121847.2%103 W · 115 L+16.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Heroic66c431.15$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.546451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Heroic43c429.95$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.884148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…1081backed Heroic47c429.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic10c429.12$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8864123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98ff…4303backed Heroic25c394.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed OG49c373.81$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.8141248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed OG55c368.53$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.847047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed OG57c347.37$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.377261.1%44 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed OG58c325$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.519743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02e4…f0aebacked OG64c317.74$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1142070%14 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ba9…0765backed OG70c312.56$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.192050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Heroic45c302.6$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.174438.6%17 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b9f…f266backed OG56c278.27$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.444100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+76.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5635…3534backed OG56c259.73$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.282491.7%22 W · 2 L+5.7wins+0.24per pick68cpaid+37.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbdd0…b94cbacked OG78c256.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.652166.7%14 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46fe…a43dbacked OG61c213.52$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.522770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae9…74acbacked Heroic6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ea…6f62backed OG55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Heroic26c199.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5267853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91a8…2db7backed OG54c190$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.495675%42 W · 14 L+8.3wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Heroic39c188.52$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5239936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Heroic31c187.67$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3614537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Heroic54c185.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked OG55c183$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.530138.9%117 W · 184 L-20.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed OG55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8222453.1%119 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9250…c0cbbacked OG54c181.7$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.85475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked OG54c180$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.860542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8f…e8b1backed Heroic23c179.2$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.645540%22 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c61…470fbacked OG56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.579544.2%42 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked OG57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.447157.7%41 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd8…a5bebacked Heroic23c165.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3820339.9%81 W · 122 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd138…7058backed Heroic27c151.91$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0211551.3%59 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Heroic50c149.95$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.42339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked OG76c145.54$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9333945.1%153 W · 186 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1318…0af2backed OG51c143$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0717633.5%59 W · 117 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe48…5895backed Heroic47c127.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9710…80a3backed OG79c125.81$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.42366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2fb…793ebacked Heroic40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ec…a7b9backed Heroic25c124.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319423.4%22 W · 72 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e74…d044backed Heroic45c120$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31ed…2927backed OG57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf84…a7b5backed OG78c103.52$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.522470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48ec…a48cbacked Heroic20c100.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed OG56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4413657.4%78 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x408a…6b19backed OG55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451275%9 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked OG69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Heroic20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f8e…5ad4backed Heroic54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.132050%10 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc91…67a6backed OG54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x36a9…c1d3backed Heroic24c99.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243265.6%21 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed OG75c99.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked OG56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2922538.7%87 W · 138 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed OG69c87.9$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2537832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed OG66c84.91$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4862841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8942…9ea9backed Heroic49c82.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406943.5%30 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06fc…74c9backed OG52c80.21$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.141963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+30.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked OG56c80$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.211955.5%66 W · 53 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x115d…1691backed OG50c75.45$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8514244.4%63 W · 79 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…82b4backed OG55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.732556%14 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcf0…4c25backed OG76c72.2$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.331435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.